373
FXUS65 KVEF 281737
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1037 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorm activity will be limited to Mohave County
  through Wednesday, with things drying out area-wide during the
  second half of the week.

* Above-normal temperatures persist, with dangerous and
  potentially record-breaking temperatures beginning Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Satellite and radar imagery earlier tonight showed a massive
complex of storms over Sonora and far southern Arizona. Hard to
imagine this activity won`t spur an MCV that spins up into western
Arizona later today. However, it should also be accompanied by a
fair amount of cloud cover, thus limiting instability. Have
increased PoPs across eastern Mohave County to 10-20% to account
for potential convective development this afternoon, but current
thinking is any activity should be quite isolated and favor the
high terrain. That said, if a robust storm can develop, strong
outflow winds and localized heavy rain are possible. Similar
potential exists on Wednesday before moisture decreases and high
pressure builds Thursday and beyond.

The main story continues to be the heat. High clouds from the
aforementioned MCV are already moved into our far southeastern
areas, and will continue to drift north this morning. This will act
as a blanket, keeping morning lows elevated. As they linger
throughout the day, high temperatures may be suppressed slightly,
but still expecting highs ~5 degrees above normal. Similar heat is
anticipated on Wednesday, but temps return to dangerous levels
Thursday through early next week thanks to a ~600dm ridge building
overhead. Daily and monthly records will be challenged (see CLIMATE
section below) as major to extreme heat risk spreads across the
region. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for all of our
valley locations from Thursday through Sunday, with Heat Advisories
for the higher mountain zones.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
South-southwest winds with gusts around 18 kts build into the
afternoon these winds reduce and gusts cut off after 04z.
Temperatures have already passed 100 degrees and look to stay above
100 degrees until 06z. Winds look to become lighter into mid
Wednesday morning and become more southeasterly. These winds will
increase on the late morning then turn southwesterly again Wednesday
afternoon with gusts around 18 kts. Mostly clear skies are expected
through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy winds are
building across the region with gusts peaking around 20 kts that
will last into the mid evening to early night before reducing. The
exception will be KDAG which looks to hold off until 00z for gusts
to arrive, peaking closer to 25 kts, and not reducing until the late
night/early Wednesday. Winds don`t look to increase again until the
late morning and early afternoon on Wednesday. Mostly clear skies
are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           THU, JUL 30  FRI, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     114(1978)*   115(1978)*   116(1979)*   115(1979)*
Bishop        105(2020)*   109(2000)*   108(2020)*   108(2020)*
Needles       120(2020)    121(2020)*   121(1993)*   120(1993)*
Daggett       114(2000)    113(2020)*   115(1995)*   117(1986)*
Kingman       110(2020)    112(2020)*   106(2020)*   105(1918)*
Desert Rock   109(2000)*   109(1996)*   109(1993)*   109(1993)*
Death Valley  127(1995)    125(2020)*   127(2017)*   126(1993)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      THU, JUL 30  FRI, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2019)*    88(2020)*    92(2020)*    91(2024)*
Bishop        72(2022)     67(2018)     71(2007)     71(2007)
Needles       94(2019)     94(1925)     95(1969)     92(1980)*
Daggett       86(2016)     85(2018)     84(2000)*    83(2018)*
Kingman       83(1972)     83(1914)     82(1914)*    82(2008)*
Desert Rock   81(2015)     82(2016)     83(2000)     86(2000)
Death Valley  103(2018)    103(2018)    106(1920)    100(2024)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Murdock

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