546
FXUS65 KVEF 011207
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
500 AM PDT Tue Sept 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Relatively drier and cooler conditions expected through the work
  week, though uncertainty increases this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Monday.

Southwesterly flow will maintain dry conditions through most of the
week. Moisture from Hurricane Karina may get pulled into this flow
pattern, but forecast soundings indicate most of this moisture
should stay aloft, resulting in mid and high cloud cover rather than
precipitation. The cloud cover will help keep temperatures around
five degrees below normal for late September from Wednesday through
Friday. Elevated winds at 850 mb will also support gusty
southwesterly winds each afternoon most days. Forecast confidence
decreases heading into the weekend. There is a tropical disturbance
located several hundred miles off the west coast of Mexico that has
a 90 percent chance of cyclone formation over the next seven days.
High amounts of forecast uncertainty remains as models seem to be
gravitating towards two different solutions. One solution takes the
system west into the Pacific Ocean, which would have little effect
on weather in the forecast area besides increased cloud cover. The
other solution tracks north towards the California Coast. Should
this solution prevail, widespread precipitation is within the realm
of possibility. Models have slowed down the progression of the
system in this solution, with precipitation chances lasting into
Monday should it occur. At this time, the ECMWF Ensemble has most
members indicating the westerly track, while the GEFS Ensemble has a
wider range of outcomes, with members split between the solutions.
Again, plenty of uncertainty at this time and will continue to
monitor trends with upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Breezy conditions expected today. Light southerly winds early this
morning will increase to 10-15 kts by 17z with gusts 25-30 kts
during peak heating of the day until sunset. Short term guidance is
in agreement that elevated winds 10-15 kts continue after sunset and
into the overnight hours. Lower confidence if gusts persist
overnight, but for now keeping winds around 12 kts after 03z tonight
in the TAF. Temps remain below 100F through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Breezy southerly to
westerly winds expected today. A stronger low to mid level jet moves
in overhead promoting breezy conditions through the day and into
tonight across the region. Light southerly winds early this morning
increase to 10-20 kts late morning through the rest of the day with
gusts upwards of 20-30 kts. Confidence is increase that winds may
remain elevated after sunset tonight at most sites, so keeping
higher winds in the forecast for tonight than what a typical diurnal
pattern would suggest. No cloud or vis issues expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Moore

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