010
FXUS65 KVEF 020922
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
222 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures continue through
  the weekend and into the start of next week.

* Potential for a monsoonal moisture surge midweek, with above-
  normal temperatures mid-to-late week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

Conditions remain largely dry across the forecast area, with the
persistent, dry southwesterly flow aloft. Expect sunny skies,
seasonal temperatures, and afternoon south-southwesterly breezes
through the remainder of the weekend into the start of the work week.

Monday and Tuesday, an incoming trough will deamplify the southern
CONUS / northern Mexico ridge of high pressure, which will shift the
center of the high further east. This will allow moisture to once
again creep up the Colorado River Valley, with forecast ECMWF
ensemble PWATs peaking on Wednesday from Laughlin / Bullhead City to
Las Vegas to 0.75 - 1.00". At present, NBM PoPs remain very slight
(5-15%) and isolated to eastern Mohave County Wednesday through
Friday. Meanwhile, despite the moisture surge, heights aloft rebound
midweek with the aforementioned building high. Individual ensemble
members are fairly consistent with Las Vegas observing 110-111
degrees on Thursday and the NBM has a similar solution, with a
spread of 1 degree (110 to 111) between the 25th and 75th percentile
for max temperatures. Depending on the amount of monsoonal moisture
that makes it into our forecast area, cloud cover and/or
precipitation chances may hinder chances of temperatures reaching
such high values... the alternative solution is a muggy above-normal
day ahead. "Major" HeatRisk has expanded to include southern Clark
and southern San Bernardino in addition to the Colorado River Valley
and southern Mohave County on Thursday, with a scattering of
"Extreme". Will continue to assess the magnitude of the moisture
resurgence midweek and the need for heat-related headlines late-week
as we move through the weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Typical
overnight southwest winds at 8KT or less expected for the remainder
of the overnight period. After a period of light winds Saturday
morning, breezy south winds return Saturday afternoon. Winds on
Saturday will be similar or slightly lighter than today.
Temperatures will exceed 100F between 19z and 03z, with a high
around 106F under clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will
generally remain 10 kts or less over most areas overnight with a few
gusts between 15-20 kts still possible near KDAG. Breezy south to
southwesterly winds will return late Saturday morning or afternoon
with speeds/gusts similar to or slightly lower than today. VFR
conditions and mostly clear skies will persist through the TAF
period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Gorelow

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