706
FXUS65 KVEF 052118
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
218 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions with a warming trend are expected through midweek
  as high pressure builds across the region.

* Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a
  tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into
  the West Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Quiet weather is expected in the near term as high pressure
gradually builds over the region. This will allow temperatures to
climb from several degrees below average today to several degrees
above average by Wednesday. Meanwhile, mostly clear skies will
dominate the region with light winds expected for most of the
region, with the exception of sporadic enhanced northerly winds
near Lake Mohave and Bullhead City on Monday and Tuesday.

Weather forecast gets more complicated Thursday onward as forecast
guidance remains uncertain on how to handle the remains of
Priscilla in the Eastern Pacific, and how that remnant moisture
may interact with troughing along the West Coast. Most of the GFS
and Canadian based ensembles take Priscilla out to sea, which
results in a slower and more modest northward moisture advection
into the region with best precip chances favored over the weekend.
This is at odds with the ECMWF and ICON based guidance, which are
more insistent on the remnants of Priscilla lifting north along
the Baja Coast and into the Colorado River Valley while getting
absorbed within the southwesterly flow aloft. This alternative
scenario would favor an earlier precipitation onset and
potentially heavier and more widespread rain totals. Given the
remaining uncertainty, it`s hard to say more than that increasing
rain chances are expected during the Thu - Sun time period, with
the potential for some pockets of heavy precipitation as well. As
guidance converges on a solution, timing and location details will
become more clear. Outside of the precipitation chances,
temperatures will trend closer to seasonal normals thanks to
increased cloud cover and decreasing heights moving in.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Mostly
clear skies with light winds favoring typical daily trends are
expected the remainder of today and tonight. Skies will remain
clear Monday with a modest increase in northeasterly breezes
during the afternoon, with a few sporadic gusts to 15 knots
possible.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Generally light winds
expected across the region through tonight with mostly clear
skies. An uptick in north or northeasterly winds are expected
Monday, with strongest winds and gusts to 20 knots near KEED and
KIFP.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Outler


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