232
FXUS65 KVEF 092301
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
401 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms will persist over the next several days,
  with the greatest chances over higher terrain and some storms
  spreading into adjacent valleys during the late afternoon and
  evening.

* Dangerous heat will continue into Monday, with widespread Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk driven by well above normal temperatures and
  increased humidity.

* An influx of monsoonal moisture will bring increased thunderstorm
  chances along with a gradual cooling trend by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected
across the western Mojave Desert, southern Nevada, and southern
Great Basin. Initial development is expected over higher terrain,
but as the day progresses, some of the storms may spread into
adjacent valleys. DCAPE measured from the 18Z Las Vegas sounding
exceeded 1600 J/kg, so gusty winds will be the primary concern with
storms that develop. PWAT values from the 18Z sounding have also
increased slightly to near 1.15 inches, so brief downpours will also
be possible. However, given the still relatively low moisture
levels, some storms may produce lightning with little rainfall,
increasing the risk of fire starts. Storms will diminish overnight,
but additional thunderstorms are likely on Monday.

Meanwhile, dangerous heat continues this afternoon, with widespread
Major to isolated Extreme HeatRisk as temperatures exceed 110F
across most of the Mojave Desert and climb above 100F in the Owens
Valley. Major HeatRisk lingers into Monday for parts of the Colorado
River Valley, Death Valley, and Las Vegas Valley. The Extreme Heat
Warning has been extended through Monday evening for the previously
mentioned areas, while the warnings and advisories for the remaining
areas will expire this evening. Temperatures will drop off
considerably beginning Tuesday as surface moisture increases.

By midweek, the high-pressure ridge over the southwestern US will
shift eastward and a weak low will develop off the Southern
California coast. This pattern will draw deeper moisture northward
into our region, resulting in more widespread thunderstorm coverage.
With the increased moisture and cloud cover, temperatures will
return to near or slightly below normal. However, the risk of
isolated flash flooding will rise as PWAT values are forecast to
climb to 150% to 200% of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Thunderstorm activity will continue through 02Z. The
main concern is gusty and erratic outflow winds, although frequent
lightning and brief downpours remain possibilities. Outside of
storms, expect southwesterly winds of less than 10 knots to
develop after sunset. Additional thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
during tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is low in placement and
timing. Besides storms, breezy southwesterly winds return
tomorrow afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Storm activity will
continue through sunset across much of the Mojave Desert, Eastern
Sierra, and southern Great Basin. The main concern is gusty and
erratic outflow winds, although frequent lightning and brief
downpours are also possible. Prevailing winds outside of storms
should also decrease after sunset. Additional thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out for tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is low in
placement and timing.

&&

.CLIMATE....Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees
of the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SUN, AUG 9
              Record(Yr)
Las Vegas     114(1940)*
Bishop        107(1981)*
Needles       117(2004)
Daggett       113(1980)*
Kingman       108(1940)
Desert Rock   109(2012)*
Death Valley  125(2012)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      SUN, AUG 9
              Record(Yr)
Las Vegas     87(2025)*
Bishop        65(2022)*
Needles       92(1902)*
Daggett       82(2024)*
Kingman       79(2003)*
Desert Rock   81(2012)*
Death Valley  100(2024)*
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Meltzer

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