718
FXUS65 KVEF 302015
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
115 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Generally cooler and drier conditions expected this week, though
  isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are possible today and
  Monday in our eastern zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

The Four Corners area of high pressure that brought extreme
temperatures and isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region
last week has shifted eastward thanks to troughing over the western
United States. There remains 0.75 - 1.00 inches of PWAT over the
region, with greater values in our eastern zones including Mohave
County and eastern Lincoln County. As a result, with daytime
heating, there is a 20 percent chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Mohave County this afternoon, with
greater chances further east. Some high-resolution convective
allowing models continue to show a complex forming over La Pax and
Yavapai counties this evening, with a corresponding outflow boundary
pushing into the Mojave Desert. Should this come to fruition, the
outflow boundary will bring a moisture flux as well as 250-500 J/kg
of CAPE along with it, which will return chances of shower and
thunderstorm development over Mohave, eastern San Bernardino, and
eastern Clark counties tonight in addition to gusty winds. Monday
afternoon, chances of showers and thunderstorms return, as moisture
remains over the region and a shortwave pushes into the southern
Great Basin. Forecast HRRR soundings show over 2500 J/kg of CAPE
over Mohave County Monday afternoon, with SPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook highlighting the county with a "Slight" and areas further
north with a "Moderate". Tuesday onward, moisture is scoured out of
the region thanks to dry southwest flow aloft. The aforementioned
troughing over the region will allow temperatures to drop below-
normal for early September with gusty southwesterly afternoons.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon with
occasional gusts to 25 knots likely through sunset. South to
southwest winds will persist overnight, although the gustiness
should subside by late evening. Similar wind patterns are expected
Monday, except the southerly gusts may begin earlier around 16Z. VFR
conditions will prevail through Monday with any cloud bases
remaining 12kft AGL or higher. Any convection in the region will
remain well east of the terminal area. Temperatures may briefly
reach 100F this afternoon, but readings should then remain below
100F through at least midweek.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Outside of the western
Mojave Desert, where winds will favor a more westerly direction
through Monday, southerly to southwesterly winds will be seen across
the region this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be
common through sunset, with lighter winds developing thereafter. VFR
conditions will persist through the TAF period with FEW to SCT high
clouds AOA 10kft AGL passing across the region. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible over far eastern portions of the region
this afternoon, although no convection is expected to directly
impact area terminals.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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