456
FXUS65 KVEF 120846
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
146 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Wednesday afternoon offers widespread chances for storms with
  an increased risk for flooding in Mohave County AZ, with a Flash
  Flood Watch issued from noon through midnight.

* Daily afternoon to evening isolated thunderstorm chances will
  continue through the late week, with the greatest chances over
  higher terrain and some storms spreading into adjacent valleys.

* Temperatures continue to cool into the weekend with a slight
  rebound in temperatures over the weekend and into the next work
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Lingering showers continue to pass through the region, but these
overnight precip chances don`t look very impactful. The continued
push of monsoonal moisture will offer some of the best and most
widespread chances for storms of the forecast this afternoon. The
best chances will be along the favored higher terrain, but the
environment looks to allow for much more of those storms to filter
into the valleys across the region. Additionally, shorter-term
models are keeping the storm chances later into the night compared
to previous days, with things not completely settling down until
the late night. The spread of the storms and the amount to
moisture aloft will increase concerns for flooding for Clark Co
NV and Mojave Co AZ, with WPC upgrading those areas to a 15 to 25%
risk of Excessive Rainfall. Taking into consideration the more
consistent chances for storms, as well as terrain and flood prone
environments affected, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
Mohave County AZ from noon through midnight.

A slight pattern shift will reduce Thursday`s storm chances, but
will still offer a good environment for afternoon and evening
storms. While widespread flooding looks less likely, localized
flooding will still be a threat, along with thunderstorm gusts and
lightning. Friday`s storm chances will be much more spotty and
look to dissipate earlier than previous days. Conditions stabilize
into the weekend as a high pressure tilts back into the region.


The overall cooling trend continues through the late work week.
Heat risk will drop through the week with all of the southern
Great Basin and Mojave Desert seeing only Minor or Moderate
readings. Lows look to fall into the 70s and 80s while highs
reduce into the 90s to lower 100s. Temperatures look to rebound
slightly into the weekend, but not significantly.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Decreasing chance for showers in the valley tonight,
precipitation should remain south and east overnight. Winds will
remain southwest around 8KT overnight before becoming light and
variable Wednesday morning. Convection is expected to develop again
Wednesday afternoon with more coverage than previous days. 30%-40%
chance of thunderstorms at the terminals which could result in heavy
rain, visibility under 5SM, sudden gusty winds, and CIGs below
8000ft. Outside of convection, south to southeast winds around 10KT
with occasional gusts over 15KT are expected. Low confidence in the
wind forecast Wednesday evening after thunderstorms wane as wind
direction may depend on afternoon convection. Light winds will
eventually set up Wednesday night. VFR conditions with SCT-BKN
clouds over 10kft are expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Any showers and storms
will end across the region, lingering for a a few more hours in the
Southern Great Basin tonight. Additional showers and isolate
thunderstorms may shift into southern Mohave County after 10Z as
decay storms from southwest Arizona drift north. In addition to
showers, south to southeast winds over 10KT with occasional gusts
over 20KT are possible through the morning in the Colorado River
Valley. Winds will calm down by Wednesday morning. Elsewhere,
typical wind patterns are expected overnight. Convection will
develop again Wednesday afternoon across much of the region. Any
storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, sudden gusty winds, and
CIGs below 8000ft. Outside of convective influences, south to
southwest winds around 10KT will develop Wednesday afternoon. Wind
and convection will diminish after sunset Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Murdock
AVIATION...Nickerson

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