859
FXUS65 KVEF 012306
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
306 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through late
  afternoon before tapering off this evening. Brief heavy rain and
  lightning will be possible.

* Conditions dry out on Monday with northerly breezes.
  Temperatures will start slightly below normal early in the week
  and climb slightly above normal by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Broad shield of subtropical moisture and steady moderate to
locally heavy rainfall has shifted eastward this afternoon to
become focused more across eastern Arizona. Overnight rainfall
totals across our region range from a tenth-of an inch or less
across the Western Mojave Desert and the valleys of Inyo County,
to roughly 0.25-0.75 across the eastern Mojave Desert including
Las Vegas. The heaviest rainfall from the event has focused across
eastern Lincoln and Mohave Counties, where widespread rainfall
totals of 1.5-4 inches have been observed. Heavy rain across the
Big Sandy watershed have led to near record flows in Burro Creek
and the Big Sandy which are ongoing this afternoon.

Modest instability developing ahead of the trough axis is
currently fostering thunderstorm development across the Death
Valley and Amargosa Valley regions that will continue to develop
towards the Spring Mountains through the afternoon with localized
heavy downpours. A few storms will also develop across northwest
Arizona along a developing precipitation axis. All this activity
will gradually wane through the evening with the loss of daytime
heating and the trough axis shifting east.

The remainder of the week ahead looks fairly benign with dry
conditions. Temperatures will start out slightly below normal but
climb slightly above normal by next weekend as heights rise across
the region. Lookout for some patchy fog in the cooler valleys the
next few mornings with ideal radiational cooling conditions taking
place and elevated moisture levels persisting across the region.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Scattered showers and isolated storms linger around 01z, with drier
weather and improving sky conditions this evening. Winds this
evening and overnight will most likely be from a westerly or
southwesterly direction, but there remains a ~30% chance that
northwest winds take hold. Higher confidence in northwest winds
arriving mid-morning on Monday, but should weaken and turn
northeasterly in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
isolated storms continue to push east this evening, exiting the
forecast area by at least midnight. Gusty, erratic winds are
possible near the strongest convection, along with lower CIGs and
reduced visiblity within precipitation. Behind this activity, sky
conditions are expected to rapidly improve. Gusty southwest to west
winds continue across the Mojave Desert this afternoon, with gusty
northwest winds in the southern Great Basin. Winds forecast to
subside overnight, favoring a northerly direction on Monday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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