805
FXUS65 KVEF 282342
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
442 PM PDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through Tuesday
  along with cooler temperatures.

* Stronger storms across the Colorado River Valley and
  northwestern Arizona may produce flash flooding, small hail,
  and strong wind gusts.

* Mild weather and warming temperatures are expected during the
  second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through next weekend.

Satellite imagery shows low pressure centered in southern Nye
County this afternoon drifting southward. To the east of the
trough axis, showers and thunderstorms are moving to the northeast
across eastern San Bernardino, Clark, and Lincoln counties. There
are also a few storms moving southward behind the trough in
northern Inyo County. The moisture source for all this convective
activity is the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Odalys.
Wraparound precipitation will linger through Tuesday over the
eastern half of the CWA, but will be more scattered than today.
18Z sounding shows some good moisture at the edge of the moisture
gradient. Being on the edge of the moisture gradient brings more
thunder and less opportunity for flooding rain except in areas
where stronger cells train over the same locations. The greater
flash flood threat remains to the east, mainly over Mohave County
and portions of Lincoln County. A flood watch remains in effect
for most of Mohave County through Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, a drying and warming trend will begin as the
trough moves out and a ridge of high pressure begins to build
over the desert southwest. This ridge will control the weather
through the weekend, bringing clear skies and temperatures 5 to
10 degrees above normal by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...At
issuance, a broken line of thunderstorms extends from SW UT to SE
CA, and while a majority of activity will remain east of the
terminal, thunderstorms remain possible over the higher terrain in
the vicinity of KLAS through mid-evening. Thereafter, vicinity
showers persist a majority of the period, with a medium chance
(around 30%) for showers to impact the terminal late tonight
through early Tuesday morning, and a brief window for
thunderstorms during the early afternoon. Primary concerns are
erratic, gusty winds, lightning, and brief ceiling/visibility
reductions due to heavy rain. Outside of convective influences,
southeasterly winds with some variability will continue through
this evening, with gusts to around 20KT at times. Winds become
lighter overnight, before shifting to the northwest mid-morning,
with gusts to 20-25KT expected through the afternoon. Ceilings
will be SCT-BKN around 10kft, possibly lower in the vicinity of
storms, with precipitation ending and ceilings improving by sunset
Tuesday.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...A broken line of
thunderstorms extending from SW UT to SE CA will continue moving
east this evening, with lingering wrap-around showers continuing
tonight and Tuesday across southern NV, northwestern AZ, and the
Colorado River Valley. KIFP and KEED will see impacts from these
storms through midnight, including gusty erratic winds, MVFR/IFR
conditions in heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Additionally,
Las Vegas Valley terminals could see direct impacts from
showers/gusty winds early Tuesday morning, with around a 20%
chance of thunderstorms late morning and early afternoon. Outside
of convective influences, southerly to southeasterly winds gusting
to 20-25KT will continue through this evening, with winds
becoming lighter overnight. Exceptions include KBIH, where
northwesterly winds will prevail through the forecast period with
gusts to 20-25KT this evening and again on Tuesday, and KDAG,
where winds maintain a westerly to west-northwesterly direction.
Tuesday morning, a northwesterly to northerly wind shift is
expected, with gusts to 20-25KT areawide thereafter. Ceilings will
be SCT-BKN around 10kft and above, gradually improving from west
to east near and just beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berc
AVIATION...Phillipson

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