913
FXUS65 KVEF 161003
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
303 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and windy conditions will result in elevated wildfire concerns
  today across portions of southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona,
  where a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM.

* Dry and hotter-than-normal conditions persist through the end of
  the work week.

* Gusty southwesterly winds return late-week into the weekend as a
  longwave trough drops temperatures across the region.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

The Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between an area of low
pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and an area of high pressure over
northern Mexico, resulting in a dry southwest flow aloft (and breezy
southwest winds each afternoon). Today, a shortwave will push into
the region, which will further increase southwesterly winds to 30
to 35 mph across the western Mojave Desert, Owens Valley, and
higher terrain across the forecast area (20-30 mph elsewhere).
There is a 30-50% chance of an isolated gust to 40 mph, but these
will be isolated in space and time, so opted out of a Wind
Advisory. These winds coupled with bone dry conditions will
elevate wildfire concerns, so a Red Flag Warning has been hoisted
from 12 PM to 8 PM today, as a result. Details can be found in the
FIRE WEATHER section below.

A ridge over the Desert Southwest originating from a high pressure
centered over northern Mexico will continue to produce temperatures
5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals for the region. Temperatures
will drop slightly over the next couple of days as a result of a
shortwave passage, but will rebound back to well-above-normal by
Thursday. "Major" HeatRisk returns to desert valleys mid-to-late
week, which may result in an additional heat-related headline. Of
note, "Moderate" HeatRisk will creep into the higher elevations
moreso late-week than it did on Father`s Day, meaning people will
struggle to find heat relief by escaping to the mountains. This heat
will peak Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures drop
substantially through Sunday.

Late-week, ensembles indicate that the Gulf of Alaska closed low
will quickly push southward into the Great Basin. As the Desert
Southwest remains sandwiched between this system and the northern
Mexico high, pressure gradients will tighten, resulting in a return
of breezy southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph on Thursday and
Friday. Through the weekend, the low`s trough axis will push through
our forecast area. The associated cold front will increase pre-
frontal winds on Saturday, with speeds 35 to 45 mph and will drop
temperatures below seasonal normals by the end of the weekend.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM
today across southern Nevada (Zones 462, 464, 465, 466) and
northwestern Arizona (Zones 101, 102). A shortwave trough will push
into the region, resulting in gusty southwest winds. Speeds will
generally range from 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph
in the western Mojave Desert, Owens Valley, and the higher terrain
of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center`s Day 1 Fire
Weather Outlook has highlighted Clark County, northern Mohave
County, and Washington County as "Critical". Increased risk of
wildfire starts and spreads is a result of these breezy southwest
winds coupled with single-digit minimum relative humidities and poor
overnight recoveries (5-15%). Lighter wind speeds and marginally
improved overnight RHs expected through midweek before gusty
southwesterly winds return. SPC Fire Weather Outlook has a 40%
contour for strong winds and low RH across southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona Thursday through Saturday.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will favor a southerly-to-southwesterly direction through the TAF
period with 15 to 25 knot wind gusts picking up late Monday morning,
continuing through the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees from 19Z to 04Z, peaking around
108 degrees. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW clouds AOA 25
kft filtering through the area during the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...VFR
conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period with FEW clouds
AOA 15 kft filtering across east-central California into southern
Nevada. Breezy southerly-to-westerly winds will pick up across
the region late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon. Wind gusts
around 20 to 30 knots will continue into the evening hours before
decreasing overnight.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Stessman

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