906
FXUS65 KVEF 292324
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
425 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated to scattered storms linger, primarily in
  northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin.

* Elsewhere, cooling temperatures and gusty southwest winds will be
  the main story.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

Lingering moisture and upper-level support from a Pacific trough
will spark isolated to scattered storms this afternoon. Best odds
(20-50%) are in the southern Great Basin (where the best forcing is)
and northwestern AZ (where the best moisture is). Relatively quick
storm motions and modest moisture should limit the flash flood
threat (going to need training storms). However, DCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 20-35 knots of effective wind shear will keep
the threat of severe storms around. Tomorrow, ensemble guidance
has the tail end of the trough breaking off and digging into
central CA. This pushes most of the moisture into our far
eastern/southeastern zones on Sunday, keeping PoPs confined to
these areas at 10-25%. However, models show this feature ejecting
on Monday with notable moisture advection ahead of it. Timing of
the shortwave ejection (relative to peak diurnal heating) is going
to be critical for storm chances on Monday. Currently, most
guidance brings it through during the morning and early afternoon,
favoring storms in eastern Mohave and Lincoln counties. A slower
track could bring these better chances farther west. Beyond
Monday, confidence in convective potential decreases due to
uncertainty in Karina`s (currently a tropical storm) interaction
with the broader Pacific trough. GEFS has the storm stronger and
farther northeast, allowing more moisture to be stripped off by
the trough and advected into the I-15 corridor and points south.
The ECMWF ensemble has the storm weaker and farther southwest,
resulting in less moisture advection into our area. Ultimately,
expecting precipitation chances on Tuesday and beyond to be lower
(10-20%), but cannot rule out a more active day during that time
period if moisture advection is on the higher end.

For places that don`t see precipitation (most of the Mojave Desert),
the main story is going to be the cooler temperatures and increased
winds. The presence of the aforementioned trough and mid-week high
clouds streaming in off of Karina will cause temperatures to
steadily cool over the coming days. By Wednesday, forecast highs are
~5 degrees below normal for early September. At the same time, the
stronger southwest flow aloft will translate to gusty southwest
winds at the surface. Expecting widespread gusts of 20-35 mph
through the forecast period, with isolated instances of 40-45 mph
possible (40% chance) in places like Barstow, Kingman, and Desert
Rock. In the second half of the week, temperatures look to rebound
back towards normal thanks to subtle height rises.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South to
southwest winds (200 to 240 degrees true) with occasional gusts of
25 to 30 knots will persist through sunset. Winds will diminish this
evening and overnight, although occasional gusts to near 20 knots
will remain possible into Sunday morning. Southwest winds will
increase again Sunday afternoon with gusts to 25 knots likely. VFR
conditions will prevail with cloud bases generally remaining AOA
12kft AGL through Sunday. A few isolated thunderstorms will continue
well east of the terminal area into this evening, and some minor
impacts to the eastern approaches are still possible. Temperatures
will exceed 100F through 03Z this evening. Readings on Sunday will
top out near 101F during the late afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly winds
will continue across the region into this evening, with gusts of 25
to 30 knots possible around most terminals. Winds will diminish
overnight. The exception will be across the western Mojave Desert,
including KDAG, where winds will favor a westerly direction with
gusts of 20 to 30 knots through the late evening. Isolated areas of
convection will continue through sunset across the southern Great
Basin and western Arizona, with gusty erratic winds, lightning, and
CIGs below 10kft possible with any storms that develop. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions will prevail with cloud bases remaining AOA 12kft
AGL. Isolated convection will be possible again Sunday, mainly
across far eastern areas of the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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