443
FXUS65 KVEF 291724
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1024 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across Inyo
  County and central Nevada today.

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures return this
  weekend through midweek next week, with a resurgence of monsoonal
  moisture toward the middle to end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remnant moisture from former TS Juliette continues to stream across
the eastern CWA this morning. Rainfall amounts have generally been
light with areas across the lower Colorado River Valley and Mohave
County generally receiving less than a tenth of an inch. Instability
has remained rather weak due to the thick cloud cover so anything
more than just a few light to moderate showers is not expected
through this morning. This morning will continue to stream north
this morning, but most of the shower activity will end just after
sunrise leaving much of the area under mostly sunny skies. PW will
begin to lower across the region and most of the area will remain
fairly stable through the day. The one area that has the better
chance of seeing afternoon thunderstorms will be across northern
Lincoln County where CAPE values of 250-500 j/kg will exist. Still,
any thing that does develop will be fairly isolated and generally
weak.

Over the weekend, high pressure will rebuild over the region with
temperatures warming to above normal readings by Sunday. Not only
will temperatures warm, but much drier air will work into the region
ending the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms. Drier air
looks to remain in place through the early part of next week, which
is a change from previous ensemble runs. The latest ensemble runs
are showing that PW will rise to around 120-150 percent of normal by
Wednesday. We could start to see thunderstorm chances increase
Tuesday, but at this point the better opportunity for seeing
scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur during the middle to
later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Easterly to northeasterly winds of less than 10 knots
last through most of the afternoon. A period of southeasterly
winds could arrive in the late afternoon or early evening, but
confidence in the timing is moderate. Winds should shift to the
southwest after sunset and remain southwesterly overnight.
Temperatures remain below 100 degrees throughout the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Cumulus clouds will
develop over area mountains this afternoon, with chances for
thunderstorms mainly in Lincoln and Mohave counties through the
evening. Away from thunderstorms, winds should follow typical daily
patterns through the TAF period. Smoke from the Garnet wildfire
burning on the west side of the Sierra will continue to filter into
the Owens Valley and is expected to occasionally impact surface
visibility this evening and tonight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Meltzer

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