506
FXUS65 KVEF 131751
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
951 AM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An approaching weather system will drop late-week temperatures,
  increase Sierra snow and valley rain potential, and bring gusty
  south-southwest winds to the region.

* Impacts increase through the weekend as the aforementioned system
  moves inland, dropping temperatures further, dropping snow levels,
  and increasing widespread precipitation chances.

* Active weather pattern continues through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

No major changes from yesterday afternoon`s forecast thinking. An
incoming trough will close off as it moves through the southeastern
Pacific Ocean and into the southwestern CONUS. Initially, this will
result in an increase of gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon.
Expect widespread speeds between 20 and 30 mph, with the exception
of the Owens Valley, Esmeralda, and central Nye counties, where
gusts will range from 35 to 45 mph (higher speeds in the higher
terrain). The first slug of moisture will approach the Sierra Nevada
crest this evening, with snow levels between 9500 and 10,000 feet.
Expect a strong snow accumulation gradient with elevations above
9500`, ranging from 4 to 12 inches. Due to persistent uncertainty
regarding the details of this system, a wide range of forecast
precipitation amounts exists outside of the eastern Sierra.
Regarding valley spillover on Friday, the NBM has a 70% chance of
0.10" at Bishop and a 35% chance of 0.10" at Death Valley, while the
HREF has 5% and 0%, respectively. Temperatures will drop 8 to 10
degrees between today and Friday.

This weekend, the system will push inland, ushering in a second
round of moisture to the region. Snow levels will drop to 7000 to
8000 feet across southeastern California and southwestern Nevada on
Saturday, resulting in snow potential on the White Mountains, Spring
Mountains, and additional accumulation in the eastern Sierra.
Chances of spillover precipitation increase substantially, with
between 70 and 90 percent chances of 0.10" of rain across our entire
forecast area Saturday through Sunday. The closed low will weaken
into an open wave as it pushes through the Desert Southwest, with
the greatest instability over southeastern California. As such, this
is where the greatest flood potential exists (10-20%). Temperatures
will drop another 8 to 10 degrees, landing the region at 5 to 8
degrees below-normal for this time of year.

An active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal and through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and light valley rain. Stay tuned to the forecast if
you have travel or outdoor recreation plans.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
winds under 8KT favoring typical wind directions are expected
through the period. With winds settling in from the east later
this morning, continuing through the afternoon before
transitioning to the southwest this evening. Winds will become
light and variable on Friday morning as showers begin to impact
the higher terrain surrounding the valley. Vicinity showers will
continue off and on throughout the day tomorrow. CIGS will drop to
10 KFT, possibly lower, as this showery activity moves in.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Strong south-
southeasterly winds are expected in the Owens Valley and across
the southwestern Great Basin today with 25 to 30 knot gusts
expected to continue through the evening hours. Elsewhere, winds
will remain relatively light, 10 knots or less, and will follow
typical daily directional trends with periods of light and
variable winds possible as they transition. An approaching system
will bring increasing rain chances and decreasing CIGs to the
region the next few days, with rain and CIGs to 6kft-8kft
spreading over the Sierra into the Owens Valley as well as into
the Western Mojave Desert by early Friday morning. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions with CIGs to 10kft-15kft can be expected at times
through tonight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Stessman

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