065
FXUS65 KVEF 300707
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1206 AM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return today
  and continue through the weekend.

* Cool and dry conditions for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Moisture from former TS Vance will continue to stream north
overnight, with dewpoints currently in the 50s over the lower
Colorado River Valley and generally mid-40s to around 50 south of I-
15. This plume will push further inland through the day along with
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Light radar returns have
been observed overnight across southern Nevada, likely associated
with a weak vort max riding up along the moisture boundary. A slight
chance of light showers and an isolated thunderstorm remains before
sunrise across southern Nevada, eastern San Bernardino, and western
Mohave counties; however, recent HRRR runs have backed off on this
potential.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up this afternoon,
especially across Mohave County where the greatest instability
resides. Convection here is expected to be more widespread, and with
PWATs around 1.00" to 1.25", localized flash flooding will be
possible. Storms may also develop further west into Clark and
Lincoln counties, though coverage will be more scattered with
localized downpours. Areas further west should remain dry through
the day.

Conditions dry out Friday night with only isolated showers possible
Saturday. As the primary trough off the California coast pushes
inland late Saturday night into Sunday, more widespread
precipitation will overspread the region. Forecast impacts and rain
totals remain somewhat uncertain given sensitivity to the system`s
exact track: a more progressive, aggressive wave spreads
precipitation across the entire forecast area, whereas a slower
track shunts moisture east and keeps activity largely confined to
Arizona. Current guidance suggests the lower valleys could see
between 0.25" and 0.50", with Mohave County potentially picking up
around an inch. With limited cold air aloft and the core of the
trough staying over northern Nevada, snow levels will remain high
(generally above 9,0009,500 feet). The highest peaks of the Spring
Mountains could pick up several inches of snow, but recreational
areas like Lee Canyon should see little to no accumulation.

As the trough exits early next week, a tightening surface gradient
along its western flank will drive breezy to gusty winds Monday,
particularly across the southern Great Basin. Most gusts will
subside Monday evening, though terrain-channeled winds through the
Colorado River Valley could linger into Tuesday. Cooler air will
settle in behind the system despite shortwave ridging building
overhead, keeping highs roughly 5 degrees below seasonal normals
through Tuesday under dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds overnight along with CIGS around 16-18kft. There is a 30
percent chance of thunderstorms overnight between 09Z-12Z this
morning. If that occurs, we could see CIGs down to 12kft and
potentially down to 8kft at times along with gusty variable winds to
20 knots. SHRA/TSRA are expected chances are expected to return
after 19Z this afternoon with a 30 percent chance in the Las Vegas
Valley. If this does occur, expect CIGs to 8kft along with variable
gusty winds to 20 knots. The greatest threat of storms will likely
remain over northwest Arizona and generally affect the Mormon Mesa
and Peach Springs corridors. Outside of shower and thunderstorm
influences, southwest winds are expected to increase after 20Z with
speeds around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isold SHRA/TSRA possible
overnight affecting the Las Vegas Valley TAFs with generally cloudy
skies elsewhere with CIGs above 12kft. Light, diurnal winds also
expected. SHRA/TSRA chances will increase this afternoon across
mainly southeast NV, and northwest AZ. This could potentially impact
KEED/KIFP and the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites. Gusty outflow winds to
20 knots along with CIGs down to 8-10kft also possible. Outside of
showers and storms, south to southwest winds 10-20 knots are
expected this afternoon and into the evening before dissipating.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Gorelow

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