660
FXUS65 KVEF 292142
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
242 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
  evening, mainly across northern Mohave County and central
  Nevada.

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures return this
  weekend before with a resurgence of monsoonal moisture toward
  the middle to end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Next Friday

The main point of interest for the rest of this afternoon and
evening is one more chance of isolated thunderstorm development
before dry conditions settle in this weekend. Current satellite
imagery shows cumulus development over high terrain across much of
the forecast area. The greatest storm potential is in the southern
Great Basin and northern Mohave County, where a combination of
orographic uplift and around 500 J/kg CAPE should be enough to
support development. However, any storms that develop should be weak
and short lived. This morning`s sounding recorded 1.18 inches of
PWAT, but also showed westerly to southwesterly flow aloft and a
significant dry layer above 500 mb. Models show this moisture
decreasing through the rest of the day as westerly flow takes hold.
Convection should end this evening after sunset.

High pressure will build over the Southwest this weekend, bringing
hotter and drier conditions to the area. Temperatures should return
to above average values by Sunday, which for Las Vegas means highs
in the low 100s. A pattern change arrives early next week as
southerly to southeasterly flow around the high brings an increase
in moisture to the area. Ensembles show wide areas of PWATs between
130 and 170 percent of normal for early September, which will boost
thunderstorm activity in response. Expect a gradual decrease in
temperatures through the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Expect wind speeds of less than 10 knots through the TAF
period. A period of southeasterly winds should arrive late this
afternoon, but confidence is moderate on the timing. Winds should
shift to the southwest after sunset and remain southwesterly
overnight. Northeasterly winds return late tomorrow morning.
Temperatures remain below 100 degrees throughout the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out over northern Lincoln and Mohave counties. Convection
should end after sunset. Away from thunderstorms, winds should
follow typical daily patterns with speeds of 10 knots or less
through the TAF period. Smoke from the Garnet wildfire burning on
the west side of the Sierra will continue to filter into the Owens
Valley and is expected to occasionally impact surface visibility
this evening and tonight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Meltzer


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