978
FXUS65 KVEF 290435
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
935 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Last day of dangerous heat expected across the Mojave Desert
  toDAY before the start of a cooling trend.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms across the region through
  Saturday, with gusty winds and heavy rain being the greatest
  threat.

* Gusty winds Saturday afternoon with sporadic gusts 35-40+ mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Next Thursday
A pattern shift is on the way for the next week for the Desert
Southwest bringing an end to the extreme heat and record breaking
temperatures for late summer. Strong 500 mb ridging which has been
the dominant weather influence over the past week finally shifts
eastward today as a series of troughs pushes into the west coast
into next week bringing relatively cooler and drier conditions.

For today, a 594dm upper ridge is centered over the Four Corners
region while an upper trough slowly pushes into the west coast.
Satellite imagery clearly depicts the jet streak and associated
moisture return and clouds ahead of the trough stretching from the
Pacific to Central California and into Central and Northern Nevada.
The presence of clouds today has already kept temperatures about 5-8
degrees cooler than they were yesterday at this time, but even then
temperatures are still above normal for this time of year. In fact,
yesterday, Las Vegas broke their daily record high, reaching 111F
and also broke a record warm low temperature at 92F! Yesterday was
officially the latest date at which Las Vegas has ever observed a
low temperature at or above 90 degrees.  Despite a slow downward
trend in temperatures into the weekend, they will still remain
several degrees above normal for late summer. An Extreme Heat
Warning remains in effect through this evening for the Mojave
Desert. While afternoon high temperatures have been this hot (or
hotter) earlier in the summer without heat headlines, it is
important to note that there is historically a resurgence of heat-
related impacts at the end of the season. See the CLIMATE section at
the bottom for daily records.

A monsoonal pattern still remains in place for the Southwest ahead
of the approaching trough. Moisture advection northward has been
much slower than what guidance has suggested the past few days, but
it appears somewhat deeper moisture has finally surged northward.
Dew points today are running about 10 degrees higher than they were
yesterday with widespread 50s observed. High clouds have kept most
convection at bay early this afternoon with the exception of
northern Mohave County where better instability and a weak mid/upper
wave has sparked off showers and thunderstorms. While storm motion
has been at or above 20 kts, storm motion parallel to the mean flow
is causing training, which may increase the Flash Flood threat for
the rest of the day. Already seeing afternoon cu develop across
Southern Nevada in areas receiving more sunshine and surface
heating. Instability is still only marginal across Nevada and SE
California, which may keep convective coverage lower than what CAMs
guidance suggests for later this afternoon. Outside of Mohave
County, best chances for storms look to be in the higher terrain.
Any storm has the capability of producing heavy rain, lightning,
gusty winds, and flash flooding. As the trough slowly pushes east
tomorrow, drier air advects in from the northwest; however enough
moisture should still be around in portions of Northern Mohave
County and Lincoln counties to support additional convective
development. Similar set up tomorrow but with better upper level
dynamics, supporting more organized clusters of storms and the
possibility for training and flash flooding.

Windy conditions possible this weekend from in the southern portion
of the forecast area including San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave
Counties. A stronger mid level jet streak of 35-45 kts moves
overhead Saturday ahead of the incoming trough. Strong afternoon
mixing into this jet streak may produce surface wind gusts over 40
mph at times. Best day for strongest winds appears to be Saturday,
but still watching Sunday and Monday as well as stronger vort max
associated with the upper trough axis pushes through which could
enhance wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Typical light wind patterns are expected through the night
with light and variable winds by Saturday morning. South to
southwest winds are expected Saturday afternoon, with stronger gusts
than today as gusts to 25KT are likely. Showers and thunderstorms
will to develop Saturday afternoon in the Southern Great Basin
western Arizona, but most likely will remain away from the
terminals. Whatever showers and thunderstorms do develop will
diminish after sunset. Temperatures will exceed 100F 17Z-04Z
tomorrow. VFR skies prevailing.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Typical wind patterns
are expected tonight with winds generally under 10KT. On Saturday,
south to southwest winds will increase in the early afternoon across
much of the region with gusts 20-30KT expected. Convection will
develop across the Southern Great Basin into Western Arizona
Saturday afternoon, with gusty erratic winds, lightning, and CIGs
below 10kft are possible with any storms. Winds and precipitation
will wane after sunset, lingering the longest in the Western Mojave
Desert around KDAG as well as the Colorado River Valley. VFR skies
prevailing through the period.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     110(2019)*
Bishop        103(2017)
Needles       116(2023)*
Daggett       111(2017)
Kingman       107(2009)
Desert Rock   107(2017)
Death Valley  120(2011)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     86(2019)*
Bishop        62(1970)
Needles       94(2017)
Daggett       82(2017)*
Kingman       75(2019)*
Desert Rock   77(2011)*
Death Valley 100(2019)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Moore
AVIATION...Nickerson

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