844
FXUS65 KVEF 012027
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1227 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through late
  afternoon before tapering off this evening. Brief heavy rain and
  lightning will be possible.

* Conditions dry out on Monday with northerly breezes.
  Temperatures will start slightly below normal early in the week
  and climb slightly above normal by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Broad shield of subtropical moisture and steady moderate to
locally heavy rainfall has shifted eastward this afternoon to
become focused more across eastern Arizona. Overnight rainfall
totals across our region range from a tenth-of an inch or less
across the Western Mojave Desert and the valleys of Inyo County,
to roughly 0.25-0.75 across the eastern Mojave Desert including
Las Vegas. The heaviest rainfall from the event has focused across
eastern Lincoln and Mohave Counties, where widespread rainfall
totals of 1.5-4 inches have been observed. Heavy rain across the
Big Sandy watershed have led to near record flows in Burro Creek
and the Big Sandy which are ongoing this afternoon.

Modest instability developing ahead of the trough axis is
currently fostering thunderstorm development across the Death
Valley and Amargosa Valley regions that will continue to develop
towards the Spring Mountains through the afternoon with localized
heavy downpours. A few storms will also develop across northwest
Arizona along a developing precipitation axis. All this activity
will gradually wane through the evening with the loss of daytime
heating and the trough axis shifting east.

The remainder of the week ahead looks fairly benign with dry
conditions. Temperatures will start out slightly below normal but
climb slightly above normal by next weekend as heights rise across
the region. Lookout for some patchy fog in the cooler valleys the
next few mornings with ideal radiational cooling conditions taking
place and elevated moisture levels persisting across the region.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Sky
conditions generally improve throughout the day, though periods of
deterioration are possible as showers (and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm) move through the vicinity. Best chances for that are
between 18z-20z and 22z-01z. Precipitation chances quickly come to
an end around 01z-02z with significant improvement in sky conditions
this evening. Breezy southwest winds anticipated this afternoon with
gusts 15-25 knots. Wind forecast uncertainty grows after 23z as
northwest winds try to reach the terminal. As of now, just expecting
a westerly shift, but there is a ~40% chance of northwest winds with
gusts 15-25 knots during this time. Greater confidence in breezy
northwest winds arriving Monday morning before weakening and turning
to the northeast.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The primary band of
widespread precipitation has pushed firmly into AZ. Behind it,
expecting more isolated to scattered shower activity which will
cause brief reductions of CIGs and visibility. Otherwise, sky
conditions should gradually improved throughout the day. Gusty
southwest to west winds develop across the Mojave Desert this
afternoon, with gusty northwest winds in the southern Great Basin.
Winds forecast to subside overnight, favoring a northerly direction
on Monday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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