880
FXUS65 KVEF 020524
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1024 PM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoonal moisture returns Tuesday with scattered thunderstorms
  possible across western and southern portions of the CWA.

* Thunderstorm chances linger into the second half of the week as
  increased moisture levels remain in place over the eastern third
  of the CWA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...This afternoon through Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure building eastward across the area will
maintain above normal temperatures and widespread "Moderate" Heat
Risk levels, with pockets of "High" Heat Risk in the lower desert
valleys, including Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, the southern
portions of the Las Vegas Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. The
one exception to this will be in the higher elevations of Mohave
County, where isolated thunderstorms capable of producing gusty
winds are possible into this evening.  As the ridge shifts further
east into the more traditional Four Corners location tomorrow, an
increase in a southerly moisture influx is expected.  At the same
time, a shortwave will push into the California Coast.  The forcing
from the shortwave, along with PWATs increasing to over 1.00" across
the southern two-thirds of the CWA, will increase storm chances and
coverage tomorrow and Wednesday, with moderate-to-heavy rainfall,
isolated flash flooding, and frequent lightning being the primary
hazards.

By the second half of the week, the ridge will weaken and shift to
the east, scouring the moisture out in a northwest-to-southeast
direction.  Precipitation will generally be confined to our eastern
zones by Friday, but may linger in these areas through the weekend.
Temperatures will also fall to below normal levels by mid-week and
remain cooler than normal into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Quiet
weather is expected overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will
likely become east to northeast by late morning, and could reach 10
knots on occasion. As noted by earlier shifts, morning clouds and
virga could influence afternoon thunderstorm development. The most
likely time for storms in the vicinity should be from mid afternoon
into the evening, with erratic gusty winds being the primary threat.
Briefly heavy rain and lower ceilings will also be possible.
Temperatures could exceed 100F between 22Z and 02Z, but will be
highly dependent on thunderstorms in the area.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Mostly quiet weather is
expected overnight, although some showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two could break out in southern San Bernardino
County by morning. Thunderstorm coverage will increase around the
entire region in the afternoon and evening, with the main threats
being erratic gusty winds and briefly heavy rain with associated
lower ceilings and terrain obscuration. Some thunderstorms could
persist well into Tuesday night in San Bernardino County.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Morgan

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