026
FXUS65 KVEF 171129
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
429 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in eastern Lincoln
  County early this morning. Otherwise, expect drying conditions
  through the weekend.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms return early next week;
  temperatures climb back to above-normal midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Many thunderstorms produced moderate-to-heavy rainfall yesterday,
with several gauges measuring between 1.50 and 2.00 inches of
rainfall in under 2 hours - particularly across southern Mohave
County. CAMs are persistent in isolated convection returning to
eastern Lincoln County early this morning between 3 to 6 AM.
Though shear remains low in this region, PWATs remain around 1.00
inches with over 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE. As a result, while storms
will likely remain sub-severe, they will have the potential to
create lightning and light-to-moderate rainfall. Otherwise, a
closed area of low pressure will continue to traverse eastward
across the southern Great Basin today, which will once again
elevate south-southwesterly winds in our forecast area. This
closed low will usher dry air into the region, allowing PWATs to
drop back below 0.50 inches. Temperatures will remain near-normal
through the weekend.

Early next week, ensemble means indicate a resurgence of PWATs in
excess of 1.00 inches, which will coincide with the approach of a
closed area of low pressure pushing into the central California
Coast from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This low will provide the
instability necessary to bring a return of PoPs to the region,
with best chances across the Mojave Desert. Mid-week, ridging
returns to the Desert Southwest, which will allow temperatures to
climb back to above-normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
southeasterly winds will become elevated and gusty by mid-
morning, with gusts to 15-20KT expected before veering to the
south-southwest by early afternoon. Thereafter through sunset,
winds will gust to around 25KT, with winds and gusts diminishing
through the evening. Another round of gusty southerly winds is
expected at the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions will
prevail with FEW-SCT clouds with bases around 10kft through this
afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Another round of gusty
southeasterly winds is expected to develop later this morning,
before winds veer to the south and southwest by this afternoon.
Gusts to 20-25KT will be common across the region through sunset,
with slightly stronger gusts to around 30KT possible in the
northern Owens Valley where up-valley winds will develop.
Additionally, winds across the western Mojave Desert will remain
around 10KT or less until late this afternoon, when westerly gusts
to around 25KT will develop and persist into tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly this morning and early
afternoon over northern Mohave and southeastern Lincoln counties,
with direct impacts not expected at area terminals. FEW-SCT
clouds with bases at or above 10kft are expected through this
afternoon for most of the region, with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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