255
FXUS65 KVEF 192222
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
222 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers will continue to weaken overnight across the
  region with light snow above 6000 feet tonight.

* Widespread precipitation will move in Thursday evening with around
  4-7 inches of snow above 6000 feet over the Spring Mountains.

* Temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal will continue through the
  weekend, when a warming and drying trend brings a pattern shift
  for the week of Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Scattered showers are bringing additional rainfall with localized
areas of small hail to the region, with morning precipitation totals
ranging from 0.05-0.12 inches across the Las Vegas metro area.
Heavier totals up to 0.50 inches have been observed this morning
over higher terrain in southern Nevada and in isolated
thunderstorms. The cut off low that brought significant
precipitation to the region will continue to move through Southern
California today, with wraparound moisture bringing light rain and
snow showers above 6000 feet across the region overnight. Weak
instability paired with limited diurnal heating will keep
thunderstorm chances low, around 10-20% chance over the Colorado
River Valley. Accumulations will generally be light, with brief
heavier accumulations up to a half of an inch of rain in heavier
showers and thunderstorms. Cooler than normal temperatures will
continue through the work week.

Another low pressure system will track into the Desert Southwest
tomorrow, bringing another push of moderate precipitation late
Thursday into Friday. Ensemble and deterministic model solutions
have aligned further on the track of this low pressure system,
bringing higher confidence to the precipitation forecast for
Thursday and Friday. Snow levels will drop to around 6000 feet by
Thursday evening with anywhere from 4 to 7 inches of snow falling
over the Spring Mountains by Friday morning, with heaviest
accumulations above 7500 feet. Therefore, have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for the Spring Mountains and Red Rock Canyon for
Thursday evening above 6000 feet. Showers will taper off through the
day on Friday, with light rain showers lingering over the Mojave
Desert and San Bernardino County through Saturday. Breezy
northerly winds will return to the area on Saturday, with gusts up
to 30 mph near the California-Arizona border.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the area on Sunday,
bringing a warming and drying trend for the area Sunday through
Wednesday with temperatures rising to near normal for this time of
year. A broad trough will develop over the central US, tamping down
the ridge development over the Western US, and preventing
temperatures from climbing too high with the Las Vegas valley
seeing about a 10% chance of reaching 65F next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Lower
ceilings are the main concern this morning and afternoon. FEW to SCT
clouds between 2000 and 4000 feet will persist with BKN clouds
between 6000 and 8000 feet. Showers may enter the vicinity of the
terminal in the afternoon, but confidence is low at this time. Winds
should be less than eight knots through the period, unless enhanced
by a nearby shower.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Lower ceilings, terrain
obscuration, and precipitation will be the main concerns this
period. Ceilings between 5000 and 8000 feet were observed across
much of the area this morning and cloud cover should persist through
most of the day. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop across
northwestern Arizona this afternoon, potentially spreading into the
Las Vegas area as well. The next storm system should begin to enter
the area late Thursday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Meltzer

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