092
FXUS65 KVEF 282218
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
317 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across Inyo
  County and central Nevada through Friday.

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures return this
  weekend through midweek next week, with a resurgence of monsoonal
  moisture early next week that could bring another chance for
  thunderstorms to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures across the region early this afternoon range from the
upper 70s to the 90s for most, several degrees below normal for
late August, partially in thanks to a fetch of mid and upper level
moisture and associated extensive cloud cover courtesy of the
remnants of TS Juliette in the eastern Pacific. The more
substantial moisture associated with Juliette extends across
eastern San Bernardino County across southern Clark County and
into Mohave County, where showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible through the afternoon. Further north, isolated
thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern
Great Basin, though weak instability and a general lack of upper
level support will largely temper potential for storms to become
strong to severe. However, DCAPE values around 1000-1200 J/kg will
maintain potential for gusty downburst winds. Storms that develop
today will be quick to dissipate after sunset, with another round
of isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms expected on Friday,
mainly across portions of Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln Counties
where instability will be a bit better, even as precipitable water
decreases under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft.

Over the weekend, the ridge that has been anchored near and just
to the east of the Four Corners is progged to retrograde
westward, building in amplitude over the Desert Southwest. This
will yield a continued drying trend as precipitable water values
dip below normal for the first time in over a week, with
increasing thicknesses allowing for a quick rebound to near and
above normal temperatures this weekend through midweek. While
ridging will be the rule locally, ensembles indicate another low
taking shape off of the Pacific Northwest late this weekend, as
well as a more potent shortwave that`s expected to drop
southeastward across Alberta and Saskatchewan, both of which could
act to deamplify and potentially displace the ridge. This would
in turn allow for a return of monsoonal moisture in the first half
of next week, with ensembles indicating precipitable water values
once again climbing to around 100-150 percent of normal by Monday
and Tuesday. Thus, low-order PoPs return to the forecast the
first half of next week, particularly for locations along and
south of I-15, with a gradual westward expansion each day, if this
pattern evolution comes to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Southeast to south winds with a few gusts to 17 knots are expected
through the late afternoon and early evening.   Winds should fall
below 10 knots after sunset and remain less than 8 knots from late
evening into tomorrow afternoon.  A brief period of southeast winds
is possible once again late tomorrow afternoon before turning back
to the southwest around sunset. Mid and high-level clouds with bases
AOA 12kft AGL will continue across the area into tonight as remnant
moisture from Tropical Storm Juliette streams across the region.
Temperatures will remain below 100F through tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...A few Isolated
thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the southern Great
Basin through sunset, but no direct impact is expected at any of the
area terminals.  Winds remain less than 12 knots through tonight in
most areas, except for the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG,
where breezy east to southeast winds are expected into the evening.
Smoke from wildfires burning on the west side of the Sierra has
moved into the northern Owens Valley.  Visibilities of 4SM to 7SM
can be expected at KBIH into the evening.  Guidance suggests that
there may be some improvement overnight, although this will be
highly dependent on burn intensity throughout the remainder of
today.  Otherwise, mid and high-level clouds with bases AOA 12kft
AGL will continue across the area into tonight as remnant moisture
from Tropical Storm Juliette streams across the region.  A few
isolated showers are possible with this moisture, generally south of
Interstate 40 through this evening, but any impacts should be
limited.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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