361
FXUS65 KVEF 211704
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1004 AM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm temperatures continue with above-normal afternoon highs and
  near-record morning lows into next week.

* Thunderstorm chances continue today but decrease over the weekend
  and remain lower through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through next Thursday.

Above-normal temperatures will continue today as a 500mb ridge
remains in place across the region. An increase in moisture over
southern Mohave County and the lower Colorado River Valley will
allow readings to cool a few degrees from Thursday`s highs, although
temperatures will still average 2 to 3 degrees above normal in most
locations. Moisture levels will decrease over the weekend, allowing
temperatures to warm a degree or two on both Saturday and Sunday.
The Extreme Heat Warning remains in place for most of the southern
two-thirds of our area through tomorrow evening. Pockets of Major
HeatRisk (level 3 out of 4) will persist through the weekend in some
of the lower desert valleys, so portions of the Extreme Heat Warning
have been extended through Sunday evening including Death Valley,
the Las Vegas Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and lower
elevations of southern Mohave County. Warm conditions will continue
into early next week as the ridge remains in place over the
Southwest, with afternoon highs staying a few degrees above normal
and overnight lows remaining unusually warm.

As previously mentioned, moisture will remain in place across
southern Nevada and northwest Arizona today, allowing for another
round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Storms once again will favor formation over the higher terrain, and
some may move into adjacent valleys. However, a trough approaching
the California coast will allow upper-level flow to turn more
southwesterly, ushering in drier air and potentially hindering
convective development. Any storms that do develop will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall and sudden gusty winds. Drier
air will continue to spread across the area over the weekend,
decreasing storm chances, with any activity generally confined to
the higher elevations of the Sierra and southern Great Basin. Drier
conditions should persist into the first half of next week, although
some uncertainty remains regarding how quickly moisture may return
as the trough and ridge evolve. Some long-range guidance suggests
the ridge may eventually shift back east, potentially allowing
monsoonal moisture and thunderstorm chances to increase again by the
second half of next week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Light southeast winds will increase out of the south
around 21Z. Expect 8-10KT speeds with gusts over 15KT with the south
winds this afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening around sunset
with typical overnight wind patterns overnight. Similar winds are
expected Saturday with breezy south winds in the afternoon.
Decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms near the terminals
today, removed vicinity mentions in today`s TAF as convection should
remain north over the Southern Great Basin. Saturday will remain
dry. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z this evening, then
again Saturday between 18Z and 04Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to southeast winds
are expected this afternoon in many locations, gusting 15-20KT at
times. KDAG will remain light out of the west through 00Z when west
to southwest winds start gusting to around 20KT. Winds will diminish
around sunset and follow typical wind patterns overnight. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the
Southern Great Basin- however latest forecasts suggests less
coverage and impacts with precipitation generally remaining away
from TAF sites. Anything that does develop will diminish this
evening. &&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Nickerson

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