077
FXUS65 KVEF 140007
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
510 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, bringing
  localized flooding, gusty winds, and hail.

* Additional thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, followed by a
  drying trend this weekend and next week.

* Temperatures cool through tomorrow, then slightly rebound over
  the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

The current setup aloft involving a trough off the Pacific Coast and
high pressure over the southeastern United States allows for
favorable moisture advection into the forecast area. Dew points
range from the upper 50s to the 60s across much of the Mojave
Desert, and reach into the 70s along the Colorado River.
Thunderstorms have already started to develop over the Sierra and
high terrain in southern Nevada including the Spring Mountains and
McCullough Range. A faster storm motion may help subdue the flooding
risk for much of the Mojave Desert, but increased storm coverage
over the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona brings
elevated flooding concerns to those areas. This morning`s 18Z
sounding shows cooler air aloft, bringing surface based CAPE up to
1600 J/kg with 41 knots of cloud layer shear. Gusty winds and
hail are within the realm of possibility for the stronger storms,
especially in northwestern Arizona and southern Nevada this
afternoon. Strong winds aloft may prove to be a limiting factor,
pushing storms off high terrain before strong vertical updrafts
can form. Convection should slow down after sunset.

The ridge starts to push west tomorrow, which will begin to limit
moisture availability for storms. However, the presence of the mid
level trough off the California coast will help maintain instability
needed for storm formation. Convection will begin in the afternoon
and last into the evening, albeit with less coverage compared to
today. The greatest potential for flash flooding will be in Lincoln
County and northern Mohave County, where storm coverage is the
greatest. Dry conditions return this weekend and next week as the
ridge grows west and moisture is shut off.

The building ridge will also bring an increase in temperatures
through the middle of next week. High temperatures rise to near
normal values by Monday, which means highs in the mid 100s for Las
Vegas. Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk returns to valleys across
the Mojave Desert, with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk in
lower valleys of southern Mohave County.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Most of the thunderstorm activity in the valley has ended, but
storms are still ongoing across portions of southern Nevada and are
expected to continue through 04Z. It is still possible that a shower
or thunderstorm will redevelop within the vicinity of Harry Reid,
but at this time confidence remains low. If it does occur, expect
gusty variable winds to 25 knots along with brief heavy rain and
lower cigs. SCT clouds around 10kft expected overnight along with
south to southwest winds around 10 knots. Thunderstorms are again
expected Friday afternoon with best chances between 20z and 00z,
though activity may linger into the evening. Gusty outflow winds are
likely, with potential for heavy rain and reduced visibility should
a storm move over the airport. Temperatures are expected to remain
below 100 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist into this evening across the Las Vegas
Valley TAF sites and KBIH, but are expected to dissipate after 04z.
For the remainder of this evening expected FEW-SCT100-120kft with
winds generally less than 10 knots. Another round of afternoon
convection late Friday morning through the afternoon, mainly across
southern NV, northwestern AZ, and Inyo County. Storms will likely
produce strong outflow winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Gorelow

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