154
FXUS65 KVEF 292258
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
358 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of
  our forecast area this afternoon and evening.

* Mild weather and warming temperatures are expected during the
  second half of the week and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

The upper low is currently near Lake Havasu City and will very
slowly move to the east this afternoon. Wrap around, mainly light
showers are working their way across Clark County. Temperatures
have been struggling to increase this morning with all of the
cloud cover and showers, particularly in the Las Vegas Valley.
Some clearing should occur during the early afternoon and
temperatures should have some recovery. The Flash Flood Watch
continues through this evening for much of Mohave County and by
mid afternoon expect additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop over central and southern portions of the county where the
cold pool aloft will be located. This activity will likely linger
through the evening hours before the low pulls away to the east
overnight. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted
Mohave County with a Slight Chance (Level 2 of 4) of excessive
rainfall capable of resulting in flash flooding. Meanwhile WPC has
highlighted portions of Clark, Lincoln, and San Bernardino
Counties with a Marginal Chance (Level 1 of 4) of excessive
rainfall capable of resulting in flash flooding. Outside of
moderate-to-heavy rain, small hail, lightning, and gusty outflow
winds will be possible with any storms that develop.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Wednesday
and will be the main player into the weekend. Temperatures will
be 3 to 6 degrees above their seasonal norms through the period.
The ensembles are the potential for a weak shortwave to move
onshore along the central California coast on Sunday. At this
point, it may provide an increase in winds and some cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Convective activity has waned across the Las Vegas
Valley this afternoon, though there remains potential for passing
showers to impact the Valley through the first 1-2 hours of the
forecast period. These showers will remain light, with minimal
impacts expected if one passes over the terminal. Ceilings will
improve overnight, clearing by mid-morning. Elevated and
intermittently gusty northwesterly to northerly winds will
continue through sunset, becoming light and somewhat variable
overnight. Tuesday morning, another round of gusty northwesterly
winds is expected, before gusts diminish and wind speeds drop
under 10KT by early afternoon.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue moving westward across central and
southern Mohave County, expected to impact the Colorado River
Valley, including KIFP and KEED, through mid-evening. These storms
will produce heavy rain resulting in transient MVFR/IFR
conditions, along with erratic gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Outside of convective influences, gusty northerly winds will
taper off through the evening, becoming lighter overnight for most
and with lingering northerly flow on Wednesday. The main exception
will be KDAG/the western Mojave, where winds return to the west
overnight through the end of the forecast period. Ceilings around
8-10kft could be lower with passing showers and storms, with
improvement expected overnight and skies clearing areawide by late
morning into early afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Phillipson

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