380
FXUS65 KVEF 191144
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
344 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another day with widespread precipitation chances across much of
  the region before a break tonight through Thursday morning,
  however precipitation chances and amounts will be lower than
  yesterday.

* The next system will dig into the region late Thursday and Friday,
  bringing another round of precipitation chances to the area.

* Well below normal temperatures will continue until a warm up
  this weekend and early next week brings them closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

The low currently spinning over Southern California will slowly
shift east into southwest Arizona through the day. Overnight into
the morning, precipitation will diminish in coverage but
shouldn`t fully end as vorticity advection interacts with the
remnant moisture. Then during the day, weak cold core processes
should help scattered showers to develop at times across much of
the area. The highest chances for precipitation should be in
Mohave County as southerly flow will still be present to help keep
things moist and in an area of upper level diffluence. Otherwise,
hard to pinpoint any one area that could see precipitation vs
ones that will stay dry as hi res models have differing ideas on
what will happen with broad forcing and modest moisture parked
overhead. This afternoon will have a "hit-and-miss" shower set-up.
With less forcing and a decrease and moisture compared to
yesterday- chances along with amounts should be lower, resulting
in lower impacts overall. The Flood Watch will be allowed to
expire early this morning- while isolated heavy rain is possible,
overall rain should generally remain light to moderate and be
shorter lived which will limit the flood threat. Snow will fall at
or above 7000ft today, but given the limited nature of the
precipitation- will also allow the Winter Storm Warning in the
Sheep and Springs to expire early this morning. A quick few inches
is possible this afternoon, but probabilities for over 0.50in/hr
snow rates on HREF are limited to the peaks.

Precipitation will wind down tonight and a period of dry weather
is expected in most locations tonight through Thursday morning as
the current upper level system is squeezed out of the area. It
will be short lived through as another trough digs in behind it on
its heels, which will bring additional rounds of precipitation
chances to the region Thursday night through Friday. There is
still considerable uncertainty with this next system with track
and strength, though ensembles all do show it digging further
south than the last two systems. This would shift precipitation
chances further south and would limit the amount of moisture that
could advect into the region. That said, there should still be
some moisture that shifts into the region, especially on Thursday
which could produce rain along with snow impacts with snow levels
sitting at about 6000-6500ft. Also of note- all long range
ensembles are lingering moisture longer over the region on Friday
and Saturday as the low center is shifting through, which may
change precipitation chances as details shake out.

Cold air will remain entrenched over the region with these system
which will keep temperatures below normal through much of the week.
As the second low moves out, decent agreement amongst models that
some sort of ridging will move in late Sunday and early next week,
which will allow for not just drier conditions but warmer
temperatures. By Monday, temperatures should return to closer to
normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Lower
ceilings will be the main concern this period. Early this morning,
multiple cloud layers at or below 2500 feet AGL were present. It is
not likely that there will be enough coverage of any of these layers
to form a ceiling, but it is not impossible. The more likely
scenario is for ceilings around 8000 feet early this morning,
dropping to around 6000 feet late this morning with a few showers in
the vicinity of the terminal, most likely over the mountains. After
sunset, the more likely scenario is for clouds to scatter out,
although confidence in this is moderate at best. Winds should be
less than eight knots through the period, unless enhanced by a
nearby shower.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Lower ceilings, terrain
obscuration, and precipitation will be the main concerns this
period. Widespread ceilings at or below 8000 feet were present early
this morning, with areas of ceilings at or below 5000 feet in Mohave
and San Bernardino counties. As the day goes on, clouds will very
slowly decrease in southeast California and portions of southern
Nevada, although showers over the mountains will continue to pose
terrain obscuration hazards. Ceilings will remain stubborn over
northwest Arizona, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Clouds could briefly clear out overnight before the next storm
system approaches Thursday morning.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Morgan

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