429
FXUS65 KVEF 200000
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
459 PM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend.

* Precipitation chances return Monday and Tuesday

* Slight warming and low precipitation chances late in the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

Morning satellite imagery clearly depicts a closed low spinning over
southern ID. Westerly flow has ushered in much drier air, with
observed PWAT values dropping over 2/3 of an inch when comparing
this morning`s sounding to yesterday morning`s. The surface dewpoint
has also dropped ~25F, giving the air that crisp, fall-like feeling.
Most of the Mojave Desert fell into the 50s and 60s this morning,
with the southern Great Basin reaching into the 40s and even upper
30s! Highs today will rebound to within a few degrees of
climatology, with similar conditions on Sunday. Temperatures top out
in the 90s to low 100s in the Mojave Desert, and upper-70s to upper-
80s in the southern Great Basin.

Early in the upcoming work week, ensemble guidance remains in good
agreement on an upper-level low drifting across central CA and into
our region. There will be some modest moisture return ahead of this
feature as ensemble mean PWAT values increase to 2/3 - 1". The
combination of upper-level dynamics, colder air aloft, and anomalous
moisture should be enough to spark scattered showers and maybe even
isolated thunderstorms. Best chances (30-60%) appear to be Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon northwest of I-15. Given the
modest moisture, expecting rainfall amounts to be on the light to
moderate side. However, would not rule out some gusty outflow winds
nor some small hail/graupel (if enough instability can materialize).

After a subtle cooldown on Monday and Tuesday, temperatures rebound
during the 2nd half of the week thanks to 500mb height rises and
clearer skies. Ensemble guidance also has the mid-level flow turning
more southerly late in the week, allowing some late-season monsoon
moisture to creep up towards the I-15 corridor. Still a ways out,
but this is enough to support at least low PoPs (10-30%) across the
southeastern half of the CWA on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain relatively light over the next 30 hours, with sustained
speeds of 10 knots or less and directions generally following
typical daily directional trends. VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period, with mainly clear skies tonight, then
increasing mid- and high-level cloud cover Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region
will remain relatively light this evening through Sunday morning,
with sustained speeds of 12 knots or less. Directions will favor
typical daily directional trends in most locations. By Sunday
afternoon, up-valley flow in the northern Owens Valley, including
KBIH, will result in occasional gusts to 20 knots after 18Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with
increasing mid- and high-level cloudiness from west to east tonight
into Sunday.



&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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