961
FXUS65 KVEF 111055
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
255 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected
  across the region through the middle of the week.

* High confidence that a trough of low pressure will bring gusty
  winds and increased precipitation chances to the region the second
  half of the week, but low confidence in details and expected
  impacts.

* Much colder temperatures arrive Friday with below normal
  temperatures likely Friday into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Satellite imagery overnight showed ridging continuing to sit over
the region, with the late week system organizing itself over the
Pacific Ocean. Through Wednesday, the ridge will remain over the
region resulting in dry and low impact weather. High temperatures
through Wednesday will run 8-10 degrees above normal.

Continuing to watch how the previously mentioned system gathering
itself in the Pacific will evolve and impact the region the second
half of the week. Models are struggling to resolve how quickly the
upper level trough moves into the Southwest US as well as how long
it lingers- the latest runs have delayed the system (as well as the
axis of highest moisture) and now lingers anomalous moisture
through the weekend as a cut off low moves through Southern
California. Still seeing a plume of 200%-250% of normal PWATs
shifting into the region, but its now more Thursday night and
Friday. Lingering moisture into the weekend while the core of the
low is moving through Southern California would keep precipitation
chances in through the weekend where it was previously mostly dry,
especially south of the I-15. In addition to timing issues- ensemble
spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles total rain and snow
amounts remains large. Widespread 25-35 MPH gusts are expected
Thursday and Friday, but if and where higher gusts which would
result in wind impacts will depend on the timing and trajectory of
the system and thus is uncertain as well. Shifts in the forecast
and timing with the late week system are likely still and makes
pinpointing details and weather impacts difficult at this time.
Gusty south to southwest winds, valley rain, and mountain snow are
likely at times, just not sure when or where they will occur or
what they will exactly look like. The highest risk for weather
impacts remains in the Sierra where accumulating snow is expected
over 7000ft where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect starting
Wednesday night. One thing of note- a slower forecast would allow
for more moisture and lower snow levels to make it into southern
Nevada which increases the possibility for accumulating snow in
the Spring Mountains Friday into the weekend, anyone with plans
in the mountains during this time should monitor the forecast.

As the trough moving into the region, a sharp cool down is expected.
High temperatures drop 10 to 15 degrees between Wednesday to Friday-
going from 8-10 degrees above normal to 5-10 degrees below normal.
Below normal temperatures will then likely continue through the
weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Light winds under 8KT favoring typical wind directions are
expected through the period. Light and variable winds this morning
will become east this afternoon then transition back to the
southwest around sunset. VFR conditions are expected as SCT-BKN
clouds continue through the period, starting around 25kft then
lowering to 15kft-20kft this afternoon and overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Expect winds to follow
typical patterns across the region today and tonight with speeds
under 10KT through the period. SCT-BKN VFR clouds around 25kft this
morning will lower to around 15kft-20kft through the afternoon and
overnight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Nickerson

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