672
FXUS65 KVEF 152253
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
353 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorm chances will continue today across portions of
  Lincoln, Clark and northern Mohave counties. Drier conditions
  are expected for the upcoming workweek.

* Temperatures will steadily warm early this week, with areas of
  Moderate to Major HeatRisk developing across the Colorado River
  Valley, Death Valley, and parts of the Las Vegas Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

One more day of scattered thunderstorm activity is expected
across the region this afternoon before more stable conditions
return Sunday and a gradual drying out develops next week. This
mornings convective allowing guidance continues to favor western
Clark and Lincoln Counties, and central San Bernardino Counties
for the most robust activity. This mornings 18z VEF sounding shows
a trend towards less instability today compared to Friday, with a
slight warming of 500mb temps, and drier air aloft above 600mb.
Southwesterly shear has also weakened slightly compared to 24
hours ago, but remains elevated for mid-August, with about 20-30
knots of bulk shear. These subtle changes should result in a
modest decrease in hail risk and overall storm coverage, but
continued potential for localized strong wind gusts and pockets of
heavy rain.

While instability will wane further on Sunday, some mid-level
moisture from Tropical Depression Hernan will become entrained in
the southwesterly flow resulting in widespread mid-level clouds
and some low shower/sprinkle chances through the day across the
eastern Mojave Desert, southern Nevada, and northwest Arizona.

By early next week, high pressure will build across AZ/NM before
expanding westward into eastern NV/Utah by the end of the week.
This will result in increase HeatRisk across the region and a
pause in the monsoonal thunderstorm activity that has been
prevalent the past few days. Surface moisture will remain
somewhat elevated keeping overnight low temps warm but moderating
afternoon highs slightly. Nonetheless, a return of 110+ temps is
expected across the Lower Colorado River Valley and Death Valley.
By next weekend, there are hints a southerly flow will return and
monsoonal thunderstorm activity may return - though uncertainty
remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Storm
activity in the Las Vegas Valley within the vicinity of the
terminal cannot be ruled out through around 02Z. Storms may
produce gusty and erratic winds along with heavy rainfall and
ceilings down to around 8kft AGL. Winds should favor a
southwesterly direction overnight with speeds of less than 10
knots. For tomorrow, showers may move through the region in the
morning and early afternoon. Southeasterly winds develop later in
the afternoon. Temperatures will remain below 100 degrees today,
and may reach 100 degrees around 00Z tomorrow afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Convection will continue
across parts of the Mojave Desert, southern Great Basin, and
northwestern Arizona through sunset. Gusty and erratic winds and
heavy rainfall are the primary concerns with these storms. Rain
showers move through the region tomorrow morning, possibly reaching
terminals in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley.
Sustained wind speeds tomorrow should be around 10 knots or less.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Meltzer

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