113
FXUS65 KVEF 032329
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
429 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoonal moisture remains in place today before slowly retreating
  eastward out of the region, shifting the best precipitation
  chances further east each day through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level system located along the California/Nevada border is
the main trigger for storms across the area this afternoon and
evening. A band leftover showers from overnight along with
substantial cloud cover will delay the overall activity for much of
the afternoon in southern Nevada. This system will push to the
northeast and through southern Nevada overnight bringing much of the
activity with it. Another area of focus will be over central and
northern Mohave County, with storms moving similarly from south to
north. The main impact from these storms will be heavy downpours but
the storms will be moving relatively fast and should help limit
rainfall totals at a given location. However, training of storms is
also possible. Gusty outflow winds with storms will be most favored
over Mohave County where DCAPE values are exceeding 1000 J/kg. Drier
air will continue to push to the east over the next several days.
Storms are more likely over Clark, Lincoln and Mohave Counties on
Thursday and Friday, and favoring Mohave County on Saturday. Direct
moisture related to Hurricane Lorena should stay well to our
southeast. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period
with highs in the Las Vegas Valley remaining in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...As of
23Z, scattered thunderstorms were affecting all four approach
corridors, but not yet the terminal. High resolution models have
been consistent today in showing storms developing south of the
valley and moving at or near the terminal between 01Z and 04Z. Not
especially confident in these details, but have included it in the
TAF. If these storms occur, the main threats will be erratic gusty
winds, heavy rain, and lower ceilings. After quiet weather
overnight, scattered storms are expected to develop on the mountains
again Thursday afternoon, likely affecting all corridors again. Due
to all the thunderstorms around the region, there is very little
confidence in winds at the terminal at any time. Temperatures are
expected to remain below 100F Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered thunderstorms
will affect the region through the evening, with the greatest
coverage over northwest Arizona and lesser coverage over southern
Nevada and southeast California. The main threats with storms will
be erratic gusty winds, very heavy rain, and low ceilings with
terrain obscuration. Away from thunderstorms, wind gusts should be
20 knots or less. Thunderstorms should dissipate tonight, and
another round of storms developing over the mountains can be
expected Thursday afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Morgan

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