818
FXUS65 KVEF 040721
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1221 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures continue through Friday, with dangerous
  heat returning to Death Valley.

* A trough is set to bring cooler temperatures, increased winds
  and low precipitation chances next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Sunday.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on anomalous ridging
remaining in place through the upcoming work week. It looks like a
weak disturbance will slide around the northern and eastern
periphery of the area on Monday-Tuesday, but this won`t do much
other then briefly knock temperatures down a few degrees. Highs are
forecast to be 8-12 degrees above normal, with lows 5-10 degrees
above normal. This will be most pronounced in Death Valley where
highs are expected to be near 110 and overnight lows only getting
down into the mid 80s. Because of the resultant major to extreme
heat risk, an Extreme Heat Warning has been issue for elevations
below 2000 feet in Death Valley from 11am this morning through 8pm
Friday.

By next weekend, we should begin to feel the effects of our next
system. Still a ways out so uncertainty remains, but ensembles
suggest we could see a notable cooldown accompanied by gusty
southwest winds. Precipitation potential will hinge on the
interaction with Hurricane Rachel in the east Pacific. Latest NBM
has low PoPs (15%) in the Sierra as early as Saturday, with a broad
smattering of 5-25% across the area on Sunday. These are likely to
change over the coming days as we get more clarity on the trough-
hurricane interaction, but certainly something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect
light winds generally following typical diurnal directional patterns
through the TAF period. At times Sunday afternoon, there will be
varied direction, but it will favor the east. There is a 20 percent
chance of an occasional gust to 15 kts during peak afternoon
heating. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect light and diurnal
winds for the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites. At KBIH, expect gusts
between 20 and 25 kts from the south-southeast in the afternoon...
KDAG between 25 and 30 kts from the west... and between 15 and 20
kts from the southeast along the Colorado River Valley. No
operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Soulat

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