189
FXUS65 KVEF 160006
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
455 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across Mohave County
  Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and localized heavy
  rainfall possible.

* Elsewhere, breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts will continue
  through the week with dry conditions and near-normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Despite respectable northward moisture advection this afternoon,
warm mid-level temperatures are keeping the region capped and
stable with some just some scattered cumulus fields across our
eastern zones. Surface dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid
50s across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona, and even into
the mid-60s along the Colorado River Valley. As a closed low drops
into Northern California and the Great Basin on Wednesday,
northward moisture transport will continue and a few storms may
fire up across Mohave County during the afternoon and evening
hours as favorable jet dynamics help overcome the persistent
capping. Storms should tend to move swiftly thanks to elevated
wind shear in place, but training storms will have the potential
for localized flooding, and the enhanced shear could result in a
few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong wind gusts.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected to continue as dry
southwesterly flow keeps monsoonal moisture focused further east
into Arizona. Daily gusty winds can be expected with afternoon
gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected through Wednesday evening, trending
slightly weaker Thursday. The flow pattern will flatten out over
the weekend with wind speeds easing area wide and dry and
seasonable weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Winds struggled this afternoon to shift from SE to SSW and may do
that again tomorrow as an area of low pressure in the Sierra helps
keep winds backed to the SE. For the rest of the evening, SSW winds
15 kt with gusts approaching 30 kt continue through 03z. Frequent
gusts drop off into the night while S winds diminish and remain at
or below 10 kt. Similar pattern expected again on Wednesday with SE-
SSE winds increasing around 16z, switching to the S-SW 20-22z with
max gusts nearing 30 kt again. Lower confidence does exists in the
exact timing of the SE to SW shift. Watching the potential for
isolated storms tomorrow afternoon and evening over Mohave County,
which could send outflow boundaries towards the Las Vegas Valley.
Not including anything in the official TAF yet, but it will be
something to watch out for tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Daily wind patterns
expected at most sites through the TAF period. Strong SE-S winds 10-
15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt continue for most sites through sunset.
KDAG is the exception as strong west winds 10-18kt with higher gusts
continue through around 07z then diminishing to around 10 kt through
Wednesday morning. Winds at KIFP and KEED should diminish somewhat
after sunset but confidence remains higher that elevated winds may
persist overnight with isolated gusts 15-20kt. Isolated storms are
expected, mainly over northwestern Arizona, this evening then again
Wednesday afternoon. There is a slight threat for outflow from
storms to impact terminals in the CRV and possibly Las Vegas Valley
Wednesday afternoon and evening, but at this moment confidence is
fairly low. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with no operationally
significant cloud cover elsewhere.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Moore

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter