382
FXUS65 KVEF 201015
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
315 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and seasonable conditions will give way to increased
  precipitation chances and a relative cool down on Monday and
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures will recover during the second half of the week with
  low precipitation chances returning for our eastern zones as we
  head into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Saturday.

Dry, mild conditions and seasonable temperatures are on tap for
southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California
today as we find ourselves under a transient ridge aloft. A low
pressure system will push inland and move through the area on Monday
and Tuesday, bringing 30 to 60 percent chances of isolated-to-
scattered showers and thunderstorms to Inyo County, the southern
Great Basin, and the Arizona Strip. There will be a slight uptick in
precipitable water (PW) with this system, which when combined with
the forcing associated with this low pressure system, will help to
fuel the aforementioned isolated-to-scattered storms. The Mojave
Desert will see PWs increase to around 0.8 to 1.0 inches, while PWs
across the southern Great Basin increase to around 0.4 to 0.7
inches. In addition to isolated showers and thunderstorms, this
system will also bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area.
High temperatures will cool around 3 to 6 degrees from today to
Tuesday, with overnight low temperatures dropping around 2 to 4
degrees.

After this low pressure system clears out on Wednesday we will see
500 mb heights begin to rise as southwesterly flow sets up across
the area. These rising heights will allow for temperatures to
gradually increase through the end of the week, while the
southwesterly flow helps dry things back out. By Friday,
temperatures across the Mojave Desert will top out in the mid-90s to
lower-100s, while temperatures across the southern Great Basin peak
in the lower-80s to lower-90s. Ensemble guidance continues to hint
towards an uptick in moisture for the southern and eastern portions
of our forecast area on Friday and Saturday. Currently, the best
chances of precipitation associated with this moisture are around 10
to 20 percent in Mohave County on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
follow typical daily directional trends with speeds of less than
10 knots throughout the forecast period. An occasional wind gust
to around 15 knots cannot be ruled out during the afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail with increasing mid and high cloud cover
at or above 15kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds generally favor
typical daily directional trends with sustained speeds of 12
knots or less for most locations through the TAF period. The
exception will be the northern Owens Valley, including KBIH, where
southerly winds with gusts around 15 to 20 knots will develop in
the afternoon, subsiding in the evening. VFR conditions will
prevail with increasing mid and high level clouds from west to
east throughout the day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Stessman


For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter