720
FXUS65 KVEF 131132
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
432 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A potent, early-season storm system will bring gusty winds and
  precipitation to the region early this week, including the first
  round of wintry precipitation this season. A Winter Storm
  Warning is in effect for the Eastern Sierra Monday afternoon
  through early Wednesday.

* Gusty winds are expected Monday and Tuesday, with Wind
  Advisories issued for parts of the area.

* Well below normal temperatures are expected for much of the
  week, with freezing morning low temperatures across the Owens
  Valley and Southern Great Basin by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

This mornings satellite imagery depicts a very cold sub 540dm low
dropping southward along the Oregon Coast which is on track to be
the regions next big weather maker. This low will continue to dip
south along the West Coast through Tuesday morning before
swinging inland and dragging across the Great Basin and Mojave
Desert through Wednesday. What is most striking about the incoming
storm is how unusually cold it is for mid-October, with snow
levels dropping to as low as 6000 feet in the Sierra, and between
7000- 8000 feet further east near the Spring Mountains and Lincoln
County. Meanwhile, a deep fetch of Pacific moisture entrained in
the flow will slam into the Sierra and California Coastal ranges
where impressive early season snowfall is expected. For our
region, that means the Eastern Sierra where probabilities remain
high for 8-12 inches of snow above 7000 feet, and between 1-2 feet
or more in the highest elevations above 9000 feet. With high
confidence in the snowfall impacts, went ahead and upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning with the morning package. Majority of the
heavier rainfall will favor our western and northern areas, with
precipitation becoming more broken as its moves east on approach
of the I-15 corridor. However, higher elevations of the Spring
Mountains, particularly in upper Lee Canyon, could see some slushy
snow accumulations on Tuesday as the moisture band moves through.

Ahead of the trough, winds will also be on the increase. For today
and tonight, strongest winds remain favored across our Western
zones, and may persist well into the evening hours. Additionally,
guidance has been picking up on a pocket of enhanced southerlies
up the Colorado River Valley and into Mohave County, so have
expanded the wind advisory to include those areas today as well.
On Tuesday, focus of the stronger winds shifts east, favoring
Northwest Arizona and far southern Nevada. NBM/HREF probabilities
for wind advisory level winds within the Las Vegas Valley remain
a bit skimpy, though this evenings ECMWF meteograms suggest
otherwise and with such a robust weather system moving through,
wouldn`t discount 40-50 mph wind gusts on Tuesday. The afternoon
shift can take another look and consider any expansion of wind
headlines that would include Las Vegas for Tuesday.

Sharply cooler air will filter in on Wednesday, with afternoon
highs topping out well below normal. Further north, the first
freeze of the season remains probable near Bishop and within the
Owens Valley where a Freeze Watch has been posted. Temperatures
will remain cool through the week but gradually warm by the
weekend back to within a few degrees of daily normals.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...South
to southwesterly winds will be on the increase later this morning
with increasing gusts of 20-25 knots in the afternoon hours. Wind
gusts will decrease after dark but return Tuesday with the wind
direction shifting more south-southeast. Increasing clouds will
move in Tuesday morning with shower activity possible by Tuesday
afternoon. Until then just periods of FEW-SCT mid and high clouds
expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Breezy southerly or
southwesterly winds are expected across the region today with
gusts of 25-35 knots. Winds will remain elevated overnight near
KDAG and KBIH ahead of an incoming weather system. Most of the
regional TAF sites will remain dry through sunrise Tuesday, with
the exception of KBIH where low CIGS and rain are expected to
develop early Tuesday morning. Widespread unsettled conditions are
expected Tuesday as a broken band of rain and reduced CIGS moves
through during the daylight hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Outler


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