673
FXUS65 KVEF 300525
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1025 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
  evening, mainly across northern Mohave County and central
  Nevada.

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures return this
  weekend before with a resurgence of monsoonal moisture toward
  the middle to end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Next Friday

The main point of interest for the rest of this afternoon and
evening is one more chance of isolated thunderstorm development
before dry conditions settle in this weekend. Current satellite
imagery shows cumulus development over high terrain across much of
the forecast area. The greatest storm potential is in the southern
Great Basin and northern Mohave County, where a combination of
orographic uplift and around 500 J/kg CAPE should be enough to
support development. However, any storms that develop should be weak
and short lived. This morning`s sounding recorded 1.18 inches of
PWAT, but also showed westerly to southwesterly flow aloft and a
significant dry layer above 500 mb. Models show this moisture
decreasing through the rest of the day as westerly flow takes hold.
Convection should end this evening after sunset.

High pressure will build over the Southwest this weekend, bringing
hotter and drier conditions to the area. Temperatures should return
to above average values by Sunday, which for Las Vegas means highs
in the low 100s. A pattern change arrives early next week as
southerly to southeasterly flow around the high brings an increase
in moisture to the area. Ensembles show wide areas of PWATs between
130 and 170 percent of normal for early September, which will boost
thunderstorm activity in response. Expect a gradual decrease in
temperatures through the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical
diurnal directional trends with periods of light and variable
winds as they transition. VFR conditions will persist with few
mid-level clouds developing over the higher terrain surrounding
the Las Vegas Valley tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will top our
around 100 degrees tomorrow with temperatures approaching 100
degrees between 22 to 02Z.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds should follow
typical daily patterns with speeds of 12 knots or less through the
TAF period. Smoke from the Garnet wildfire burning on the west
side of the Sierra will continue to filter into the Owens Valley;
slantwise visibility reductions are expected with lower confidence
as to whether or not surface visibility will be impacted.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Stessman

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