323
FXUS65 KVEF 160906
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
106 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another weather system will impact the Desert Southwest on Monday
  and Tuesday, returning widespread rain and mountain snow to the
  region.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with the
  following system expected late-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

On Monday, the next weather system will approach the region. The
trajectory of the moisture plume with this system will be more
typical - allowing the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range to rain-shadow
much of the Mojave Desert. That said, we`re still assessing the
potential for spillover precipitation to return widespread rainfall
chances to southeastern California, southern Nevada, and
northwestern Arizona. Pre-frontal snow levels will be slightly lower
than we experienced with our last system, ranging from 6500 to 7500
feet. Post-frontal snow levels will drop to around 5500 feet,
allowing for snowfall accumulations in more sensitive locations.
While the majority of snowfall will occur above 9500 feet, between 2
and 6 inches can be expected above 6000 feet. As such, issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern Sierra slopes, Inyo
Mountains, White Mountains, Spring Mountains, and Sheep Range. Due
to the potential for travel-impacting snow accumulations along State
Route 266 through Lida Summit, issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
Esmeralda / central Nye above 6000 feet as well. Elsewhere, expect
light-to-moderate rainfall with an isolated lightning strike
possible Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures will drop
to between 8 and 10 degrees below-normal.

The region will experience a break from precipitation on Wednesday
before our attention turns to another weather system approaching the
region late-week. As mentioned in the previous discussion, changes
to the forecast track can have substantial impacts to the forecast,
resulting in low confidence at this time.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Ceilings
will improve overnight as showers clear out of the area. Light
and variable winds will settle in from a more southerly direction,
which they will continue to favor through the TAF period. Breezy
southerly- to-southwesterly winds will pick up tomorrow morning
with 15 to 20 knot gusts expected through the afternoon. Another
round of showers will move through southern Nevada tomorrow,
bringing lower CIGS to the Las Vegas Valley. Currently confidence
as to whether or not these showers will directly impact the
terminal area. Wind gusts will drop off and showers will clear out
in the evening hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Low ceilings and
reduced visibilities due to moderate rainfall will continue to be
a concern in the Owens Valley and the Colorado River Valley for
the next few hours. Winds will generally remain light and somewhat
variable into into the overnight hours before south to southwest
winds develop as the rain diminishes from southwest to northeast
during beginning in the early morning hours. Additional showers
are expected Sunday, although coverage should be less than what
was seen today.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Stessman

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