748
FXUS65 KVEF 160505
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1005 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across Mohave County
  Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and localized heavy
  rainfall possible.

* Elsewhere, breezy south-southwesterly wind gusts will continue
  through the week with dry conditions and near-normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Despite respectable northward moisture advection this afternoon,
warm mid-level temperatures are keeping the region capped and
stable with some just some scattered cumulus fields across our
eastern zones. Surface dewpoints have climbed into the low to mid
50s across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona, and even into
the mid-60s along the Colorado River Valley. As a closed low drops
into Northern California and the Great Basin on Wednesday,
northward moisture transport will continue and a few storms may
fire up across Mohave County during the afternoon and evening
hours as favorable jet dynamics help overcome the persistent
capping. Storms should tend to move swiftly thanks to elevated
wind shear in place, but training storms will have the potential
for localized flooding, and the enhanced shear could result in a
few stronger storms capable of small hail and strong wind gusts.

Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected to continue as dry
southwesterly flow keeps monsoonal moisture focused further east
into Arizona. Daily gusty winds can be expected with afternoon
gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected through Wednesday evening, trending
slightly weaker Thursday. The flow pattern will flatten out over
the weekend with wind speeds easing area wide and dry and
seasonable weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
southerly winds tonight give way to another round of gusty south-
southeast breezes Wednesday morning, gradually turning to a true
south direction in the afternoon. On average, wind direction during
from 16z-22z will be ~160, but brief periods as far east as 120 are
possible. Gusts of 20-30 knots are likely (70%) from 17z - 04z.
Winds weaken after sunset. Few to scattered clouds around 10kft with
temperatures remaining below 100F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds tonight with
another round of gusty south-southeast breezes on Wednesday in most
locations. Gusts generally 20-30 knots, but would not be surprised
to see a few ~35 knot readings in the Owens Valley and lower
Colorado River Valley. The latter will likely be induced by outflow
from thunderstorms expected in western AZ. Best storm chances (40-
60%) are in far southern and northern Mohave County Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The more robust convection will be capable of
producing strong outflow winds, hail, and heavy rain. Few to
scattered clouds around 10kft, with greater coverage in locations
with the best storm chances.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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