204
FXUS65 KVEF 161745
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1045 AM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures decrease throughout the end of the week, followed by
  a gradual rebound over the weekend.

* An increase in monsoonal moisture during the latter half of the
  week will result in increased chances for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

Heights will continue to fall across the region today and Thursday
as a cut-off area of low pressure deepens off the coast of Baja
California.  This low will also help increase moisture levels, and
along with the lower heights, will result in cooler temperatures
during the second half of the week.  High temperatures in most areas
are expected to be near or below normal on Thursday and Friday. Some
places, including Las Vegas, may not reach 100 degrees F on Friday (
49% chance that Las Vegas remains below 100F).  Readings will
rebound over the weekend and early next week, but only back to near-
normal levels.

As mentioned above, the low pressure off the coast of Baja
California will push increased moisture levels into the area over
the next few days.  Initially, any shower and thunderstorm activity
should largely be confined to eastern Mohave County, with a few
isolated storms in the Spring Mountains and eastern Lincoln County.
However, storm chance will increase across southern Nevada tomorrow
and especially Friday as PWATs increase to around 1.25", and all of
the usual convective hazards will be in play (flash flooding, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning).  Over the weekend, the low is
forecast to drift into southern California and weaken.  Westerly
flow will then take over, pushing the moisture to the east.  A few
storms will still be possible over Mohave County from Saturday on,
but chances will generally be 20 percent or less.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to
southeast winds with occasional gusts between 15-20kt through much
of the afternoon. There are indications that winds will shift more
to a southwest direction with gusts remaining around 15-20kt that
will continue through sunset before diminishing. VFR conditions will
prevail with haze aloft and operationally insignificant passing
clouds around 12K to 15K feet. There is low confidence that a few
virga showers will develop this afternoon over portions of southern
Nevada and northwest Arizona. Temperatures will exceed 100F between
19Z-04Z, peaking near 104F around 23Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to southwest winds
are expected around most of the region again today, with afternoon
gusts of 20 to 30 knots common. Winds will decrease slightly
tonight, but remain elevated. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon
and evening should be limited to Mohave County, but could surge
northwest to the KIFP and KEED areas Thursday morning. VFR
conditions expected elsewhere. Thunderstorm and gusty wind chances
will increase over southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and far
southeast California Thursday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz
AVIATION...Gorelow

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