964
FXUS65 KVEF 041121
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
420 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above-normal temperatures continue through Friday, with dangerous
  heat returning to Death Valley.

* A trough is set to bring cooler temperatures, increased winds
  and low precipitation chances next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Sunday.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on anomalous ridging
remaining in place through the upcoming work week. It looks like a
weak disturbance will slide around the northern and eastern
periphery of the area on Monday-Tuesday, but this won`t do much
other then briefly knock temperatures down a few degrees. Highs are
forecast to be 8-12 degrees above normal, with lows 5-10 degrees
above normal. This will be most pronounced in Death Valley where
highs are expected to be near 110 and overnight lows only getting
down into the mid 80s. Because of the resultant major to extreme
heat risk, an Extreme Heat Warning has been issue for elevations
below 2000 feet in Death Valley from 11am this morning through 8pm
Friday.

By next weekend, we should begin to feel the effects of our next
system. Still a ways out so uncertainty remains, but ensembles
suggest we could see a notable cooldown accompanied by gusty
southwest winds. Precipitation potential will hinge on the
interaction with Hurricane Rachel in the east Pacific. Latest NBM
has low PoPs (15%) in the Sierra as early as Saturday, with a broad
smattering of 5-25% across the area on Sunday. These are likely to
change over the coming days as we get more clarity on the trough-
hurricane interaction, but certainly something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Expect light winds generally following typical diurnal directional
patterns through the TAF period. Light winds this morning under 5 kt
continue for the next several hours. Around and after 17z, winds
favor a more E-NE direction but still remaining fairly light under 6-
8 kt. There is a 20 percent chance of an occasional gust to 15 kts
during peak afternoon heating. Light S-SW winds develop after
sunset, becoming variable at times during the overnight hours again
tonight. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Expect light and diurnal
winds for the Las Vegas Valley and CRV TAF sites with isolated gusts
15-20 kt possible this afternoon and evening. At KBIH, light winds
this morning increase after 19z and become S-SE with gusts 20-25 kt
through sunset. At KDAG, light and variable winds early this morning
become easterly then increase above 10 kt after 16z...gusts 20-25 kt
expected during peak heating of the day diminishing after sunset. No
operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Moore

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