864
FXUS65 KVEF 141716
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
916 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An approaching weather system will bring Sierra snow and valley
  rain through the morning and early-afternoon today as temperatures
  drop 6 to 10 degrees across the region.

* Impacts increase through the weekend with an additional drop in
  temperatures, a drop in snow levels, and widespread precipitation
  chances.

* Active weather pattern continues through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.

Light mountain snow and valley rain can be seen spreading
northeastward across our forecast area this morning. Radar
reflectivities range from 30 to 40 dBZ, with only sporadic gauge
tips of 0.01 to 0.04 inches observed across San Bernardino and Clark
counties so far. This moisture will continue to spread across the
forecast area through the morning and early-afternoon, with forecast
rainfall amounts between 0.04 and 0.20 inches across Inyo and San
Bernardino counties in California & Esmeralda, southern Nye, western
Lincoln, and western Clark counties in Nevada. With snow levels
between 9500 and 10,000 feet, the Winter Weather Advisory for the
eastern Sierra Slopes will continue until 10 AM PST, with new snow
accumulations primarily near the crest. Precipitation will become
more isolated in-nature as we progress through the afternoon, with
many areas seeing a very brief break in rainfall around sunset. With
this first push of moisture, afternoon high temperatures today will
range 6 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

The closed low responsible for this active weather will push into
the Desert Southwest this weekend. The associated moisture plume
will wrap counter-clockwise around the center of the low, allowing
it to wrap around the Sierra Nevada, and push north-northwestward up
the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert. This moisture
trajectory is certain to bring measurable rainfall to the region, as
rain shadowing will be minimal. Forecast precipitation totals with
this event are tricky, though, as the system will result in a shift
from stratiform-type rain Saturday morning to showery / convective-
type rain through the afternoon. Meaning, particularly across
southeastern California and southwestern Nevada, rain will tend to
fall with light-to-moderate rain rates late tonight through early
Saturday afternoon, with late-afternoon rain falling at moderate-to-
heavy rates, with instances of occasional lightning. The best
instability, coupled with the best moisture exists across Inyo and
San Bernardino counties, where a Flood Watch remains in effect from
4 AM PST Saturday morning through 4 AM PST Sunday morning. Snow
levels drop only modestly to between 8500 and 9000 feet, confining
additional snowfall accumulations to the peaks of the Sierra and
Spring Mountains. Afternoon high temperatures will drop another 6 to
10 degrees between today and Saturday, securing the region in below-
normal temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period.

An active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and valley rain. Stay tuned to the forecast if you
have travel or outdoor recreation plans.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The main
concerns this period will be ceilings and rain. Shower activity
continues to taper off this morning and afternoon, but a few might
still remain within the vicinity of the terminal. However, more
substantial showers should return to the area tomorrow morning.
Ceilings during that time are expected to range between 8000 and
10,000 feet, although any heavier showers could drag ceilings down
to 5000 feet and result in reduced visibility.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The main
concerns this period will be ceilings and rain. The best chances for
light rain this morning will be roughly along and northwest of
Interstate 15, with a broken to overcast layer around 10,000 feet
MSL obscuring the highest mountain peaks. Shower activity should
taper off and become less widespread in the late afternoon and
evening. A push of more substantial precipitation arrives overnight
and tomorrow morning, bringing moderate to heavy rain, low ceilings,
and terrain obscuration. Winds will be a lesser concern, with
southerly gusts of 20 to 30 knots limited to the Owens Valley and
portions of Esmeralda and Nye counties today. On Saturday, unusual
southeasterly winds gusting 20 to 25 knots could be seen in parts
of Mohave, San Bernardino, and Clark counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Meltzer

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