866
FXUS65 KVEF 162100
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures decrease throughout the end of the week, followed by
  a gradual rebound over the weekend.

* An increase in monsoonal moisture Thursday through Saturday will
  result in increased chances for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms, some of which could produce heavy rain and gusty
  winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.
Upper low off the southern California coast will help to draw up
some monsoonal moisture over the next couple of days and bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Precipitable
water over southwest Arizona has been increasing through the day
with the 14Z Yuma sounding showing 1.51" of PW with the latest 18Z
Yuma sounding showing 1.71". Early this afternoon, the 1.00" PW line
looks to be situated near Searchlight and will continue to advect
north overnight with much of the southern half of the CWA seeing at
least a inch of PW by Thursday morning. Conditions were a little too
stable this afternoon to generate anything more than a couple of
isolated thunderstorms over Mohave County and some isolated virga
showers over southern Nevada. By Thursday, with deep moisture in
place combined with much better instability we should be more
scattered showers and thunderstorms stretching into southern Nevada
and southeast California. Cape values around 500 j/kg along with LIs
around -2/-3 should allow for these storms to develop late morning
and continue through the afternoon. With PWs being close to 200% of
normal, there could some areas of flash flooding. Where conditions
are a bit drier, like western San Bernardino, Inyo, and central Nye
counties, gusty outflow winds could be more a concern.

The deep moisture will peak on Friday as the upper low off the
southern California coast lifts north and tracks northeast through
the forecast area. Another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected over much of the region. Again, we will need
to watch for areas of flash flooding along with strong gusty winds.

Moisture will start to wane on Saturday as the upper low moves away
and a westerly flow sets up over the region. We can still expect to
see some isolated storms, but most should be confined to the eastern
areas of the CWA. By Sunday, most of the moisture should be east of
the area with dry conditions forecast across the CWA. Of course,
this time of year that could change quickly.

High temperatures in most areas are expected to be near or below
normal on Thursday and Friday. Some places, including Las Vegas, may
not reach 100 degrees F on Friday ( 49% chance that Las Vegas
remains below 100F).  Readings will rebound over the weekend and
early next week, but only back to near-normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to
southwest winds with occasional gusts between 15-20kt through much
of the afternoon and into this evening. Southwest winds overnight
with speeds around 8-10kt. VFR conditions will prevail with haze
aloft and operationally insignificant passing clouds around 12K to
15K feet. There is low confidence that a few virga showers will
develop this afternoon over portions of southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z.
Additional moisture will work into the region Thursday leading to
more scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce gusty outflow winds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South to southwest winds
are expected around most of the region through this afternoon and
into the evening, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Winds will decrease
slightly tonight, but remain elevated. Thunderstorm chances this
afternoon and evening should be limited to Mohave County, but could
surge northwest to the KIFP and KEED areas Thursday morning. VFR
conditions expected elsewhere. Thunderstorm and gusty wind chances
will increase over southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and far
southeast California Thursday. Some storms could cause gusty and
erratic winds along with areas of blowing dust.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Gorelow

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