541
FXUS65 KVEF 071136
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
436 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Monsoon moisture increases over the coming days, bringing isolated
  to scattered storms to parts of the area.

* Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend, with
  widespread Moderate-to-Major Heat Risk as a result of warm
  temperatures and increased humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday.

Moisture has continued to slowly increase across the area, with
precipitable water (PW) increasing from 1.08 inches on this
morning`s 18Z sounding to 1.16 inches on the latest ACARS sounding.
Ensembles remain in agreement that PWs will increase slightly
through this afternoon, with PWs expected to top out in the
neighborhood 1.25 inches. This moisture will help to fuel another
round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
southern and eastern portions of our forecast area today. Storms
will favor areas of higher terrain across southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona for development as we will be forced to rely on
daytime heating as the primary source of lift. Erratic outflow
winds, lightning, and isolated flash flooding will be the primary
concerns with any storms that develop. Convection will dissipate
with the loss of daytime heating after sunset.

Widespread Moderate-to-Major HeatRisk (Levels 2 and 3 of 4) will
persist across the region through the weekend as temperatures
continue to run around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Increasing
moisture will make things more uncomfortable during the day, and
will keep overnight lows across the Mojave Desert in the 80 to 95
degree range, resulting in little to no overnight relief.
Temperatures will decrease next week, with seasonal temperatures
returning by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
early this morning will generally remain southerly, with some
variability between 160-200 true. A period of light and variable
winds is expected mid-morning through early afternoon, when winds
settle out of the southeast with intermittent gusts to around
15-18KT. There is moderate confidence in winds shifting to the
southwest late afternoon, as trends will be dependent on potential
thunderstorm outflow if storms manage to develop over the
mountains surrounding the Valley. Late evening and overnight,
outside of convective influences, winds will diminish. VFR
conditions will continue with no operationally significant cloud
cover expected, and temperatures exceeding 100 degrees between
18Z-06Z, reaching a high of 110 degrees.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Across the region,
winds will shift to the southeast and south by late morning into
early afternoon, with sustained speeds around 10KT with
intermittent thermally-induced higher gusts during the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher
terrain and in NW AZ during the afternoon, with thunderstorm
activity and associated outflow boundaries dictating wind speeds
and directions through the late afternoon and evening. Outside of
convective influences, winds will diminish late evening and
overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with no
operationally significant cloud cover.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           FRI, AUG 7   SAT, AUG 8   SUN, AUG 9
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)
Las Vegas     111(2018)*   114(1978)*   114(1940)*
Bishop        107(1981)*   107(1981)*   107(1981)*
Needles       119(2025)    118(2025)*   117(2004)
Daggett       115(1997)    112(2012)*   113(1980)*
Kingman       110(1920)    107(1915)*   108(1940)
Desert Rock   111(1981)    109(1978)*   109(2012)*
Death Valley  126(1998)    125(1978)*   125(2012)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      FRI, AUG 7   SAT, AUG 8   SUN, AUG 9
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)
Las Vegas     90(2024)*    88(2025)*    87(2025)*
Bishop        71(1983)     68(2024)     65(2022)*
Needles       93(1903)     93(2022)     92(1902)*
Daggett       86(2024)     85(1978)*    82(2024)*
Kingman       80(1952)     79(2025)*    79(2003)*
Desert Rock   82(2025)*    83(1994)*    81(2012)*
Death Valley  99(1947)*    101(1920)*   100(2024)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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