013
FXUS65 KVEF 201204
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
403 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another round of light-to-moderate rainfall, isolated
  thunderstorms, and mountain snow above 6000 feet expected across
  the region today and Friday.

* Temperatures will moderate to within a degree of seasonal normals
  over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
  southeastern Pacific Ocean.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Another closed low pressure system will push southeastward along the
California Coast and into the Desert Southwest today and Friday,
returning light-to-moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms to
the valleys. Pre-frontal snow levels will hover between 6500 and
7000 feet, with post-frontal snow levels dropping to 5500 to 6000
feet. Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include the eastern
Sierra Slopes, White Mountains, and Sheep Range above 6000 feet.
Expect snow-covered roads above 6000 feet, with particular concerns
including State Route 168 to Aspendell and through Westgard Pass, as
well as State Routes 156, 157, and 158 in the Spring Mountains. This
system will dig further south than the previous two systems, with
high resolution guidance continuing to trend further south with
the primary rain band with each run. Latest runs leave much of the
southeastern Great Basin dry, with a sharp gradient of rain / no
rain across southwestern Nevada. For this reason, there is low
confidence in rainfall totals for the valleys of southern Nevada,
with the most reasonable wet-case scenario showing around a
quarter of an inch for Las Vegas and the most reasonable dry-case
scenario showing 0.00". Greatest rainfall amounts are expected
across Inyo and San Bernardino counties this afternoon and
evening, where antecedent conditions will make them particularly
vulnerable to additional rainfall. Expect isolated instances of
flash flooding beneath heavy rain and thunderstorms that develop,
which will favor the higher terrain. Precipitation will continue
overnight across our southern zones before gradually pushing
southward out of our forecast area Friday morning. Wrap-around
bands of precipitation will bring light showers to the region
Friday afternoon, with minimal impacts expected.

The aforementioned closed low will push eastward through Sonora on
Saturday, allowing a ridge of high pressure to nose into the Desert
Southwest from the southeastern Pacific. Ridging will persist
through the remainder of the weekend into the start of next week,
which will allow afternoon high temperatures to moderate back toward
seasonal normals. This ridge will result in a dry northwest flow
aloft, which is conducive for the passage of shortwave wind-makers.
Expect occasional gusty afternoons as a result, particularly along
the Colorado River Valley, with otherwise dry conditions heading
into Thanksgiving.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Mostly
clear skies will continue early this morning. SCT-BKN clouds moving
into the area after 16Z near 7-10K ft MSL. E/SE winds increasing 6-8
kts after 20Z. Chance of -SHRA increasing after 08Z Friday with
increased confidence on timing. Cigs lowering near 3500-4000 ft MSL;
winds NE/E near 5 kts and vis reduced occasionally near 6SM in SHRA.
The time where wind may briefly reach or exceed 10 knots would be
between 02Z and 06Z. -SHRA chances decreasing after 18Z Friday with
cigs scattering later Friday afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...SCT-BKN
clouds will continue to move in from the west this morning with
bases 15-20K FT MSL. -SHRA moving in across the area after 00Z Fri
from west to east; light to moderate rates expected. In and around
the precipitation, expect reduced visibilities, lowered ceilings,
and significant terrain obscuration. Light and variable winds with
highest winds over the Mojave / VCTY KDAG near 10 kts. -SHRA
activity diminishing from north to south Friday evening with
scattering clouds.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Roser


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