721
FXUS65 KVEF 171214
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
413 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Forecast snowfall accumulations have increased for elevations
  above 6000 feet today through early Wednesday, resulting in
  upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings.

* Light-to-moderate rainfall expected today across our western
  zones, spreading to the rest of the forecast area on Tuesday with
  increased thunderstorm potential.

* A brief break expected on Wednesday before another weather system
  approaches the region late-week, though details are uncertain at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

This next system has continued to trend slower and is now projected
to take on a more similar track as our weekend system did. The
center of the low will glide down the Southern California coast
through the day today. The initial round of precipitation will occur
as the trough axis hits the eastern Sierra slopes mid-to-late this
morning with snow levels between 6500 and 7500 feet. Totals in the
eastern Sierra slopes and White Mountains have only modestly
changed, but have increased enough to warrant an upgrade from a
Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Spillover
precipitation will result in light evening snowfall for Esmeralda
County, Spring Mountains and Sheep Range. The second round of
precipitation will occur early Tuesday morning as the center of the
low swings southeastward around the Sierra Nevada, allowing moisture
to surge up the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert. This
moisture flux will occur as the cold front pushes through the
forecast area, dropping snow levels to around 6000 feet. Without the
shield of the Sierra Nevada, this south-southeasterly flow over the
region will allow for much greater mountain snowfall accumulations
in southwestern Nevada than previously expected. As such, the Winter
Weather Advisories for Esmeralda, Spring Mountains, and Sheep Range
have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. To compare to the
previous forecast discussion, the chances of 8 inches of storm total
snowfall in Kyle and Lee Canyons are now 90% and 95%, respectively.

Precipitation will make it up and over the Sierra crest today,
resulting in light-to-moderate rainfall in the western Mojave Desert
and southwestern Great Basin below 6500 feet. As the center of the
low digs southeastward, wrap-around bands of showers and
thunderstorms will push northward into southern Mohave and San
Bernardino counties tonight. These bands will continue spreading
northward through the day on Tuesday, bringing rainfall to the
entire forecast area. Rain rates on Tuesday will be moderate-to-
heavy at times, with heavier rain in the higher terrain and co-
located with thunderstorms. Precipitation chances linger in our
eastern zones Wednesday morning as the system jogs eastward.

A brief break in precipitation is expected on Wednesday before
another closed low approaches the region late-week. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing and track of this
system, and thus, precipitation amounts. This weekend into early-
next week, ridging will return to the region, allowing
temperatures to gradually climb back toward seasonal normals.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The main
concerns for this period will be winds and ceilings this afternoon
followed by another round of rain and low ceilings tonight into
Tuesday morning. A scattered deck around 6000 to 7000 feet AGL
should slowly congeal into a ceiling around noon. At the same time,
southeasterly winds gusting around 15 knots could pose runway
configuration concerns. Winds should settle down after sunset. After
midnight, lower clouds around 3000 to 5000 feet AGL are expected to
develop, with scattered showers becoming more widespread before
sunrise Tuesday. The widespread rain will increase the chances for
reduced visibility in fog as well as low ceilings around 1500 to
3000 feet, which are likely to persist through Tuesday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...South to southeast winds
are expected for much of the region today and this evening, with
gusts of 20 to 30 knots most likely in central Nye, Esmeralda, and
northern Inyo counties. Chances for valley rain and mountain snow
will spread from west to east, reaching the Sierra Nevada around
noon and covering most of the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin
tonight into Tuesday morning. The precip chances will be accompanied
by low ceilings and terrain obscuration.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Morgan

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