368
FXUS65 KVEF 150846
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1246 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A weather system will push through the region today, bringing
  widespread rainfall, mountain snow, and a drop in temperatures.

* The next in a parade of weather systems will impact the Desert
  Southwest on Monday and Tuesday, returning widespread
  precipitation chances and cooling the region further.

* Active weather continues through the forecast period, with the
  following system expected late-week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

The closed low responsible for this active weather will push through
the Desert Southwest today. The associated moisture plume will wrap
counter-clockwise around the center of the low, allowing it to avoid
rainshadowing from the Sierra Nevada as it pushes north-
northwestward up the Colorado River Valley into the Mojave Desert.
This moisture trajectory is certain to bring measurable rainfall to
the region, though forecast precipitation totals with this event
remain tricky. Expect a shift from stratiform-type light rain this
morning to showery / convective-type moderate-to-heavy rain through
the afternoon and evening. With the convective-type rainfall, expect
occasional instances of lightning, which would be accompanied by
locally heavier rain rates. The best instability coupled with the
best moisture exists across Inyo and San Bernardino counties, where
a Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 AM PST this morning through 4
AM PST Sunday morning. Snow levels drop to between 8500 and 9500
feet during the peak of the event, before dropping further to
between 7000 and 8000 feet as the system exits. As a result, the
bulk of snowfall accumulation will occur in the peaks of the Sierra
White, and Spring Mountains this afternoon, though accumulations
between 2 and 4 inches cannot be ruled out around 7000 feet late-
tonight as the event wraps up. Expect residual light precipitation
on Sunday. Afternoon high temperatures will drop another 6 to 10
degrees today, which will result in below-normal temperatures for
the region.

On Monday, the next weather system will approach the region, which
will bring an additional round of precipitation alongside snow
levels between 5500 and 6500 feet. Significant snowfall
accumulations (6 to 12 inches) will remain largely confined to
elevations above 9000 feet, with 2 to 4 expected down to 6000 feet
between Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, widespread light-to-moderate
rainfall expected, with afternoon high temperatures dropping to 8 to
10 degrees below-normal.

An active pattern of incoming troughs will keep temperatures below-
normal through the forecast period, with persistent chances of
mountain snow and valley rain. The exception will be Wednesday, when
the region will have a brief reprieve of precipitation chances. Stay
tuned to the forecast if you have travel or outdoor recreation
plans.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The
primary aviation concerns this forecast period are low ceilings
and visibility reductions due to moderate to heavy rainfall.
Ceilings through tonight will hover between 8-10kft, dropping to
3-5kft as rain showers move across southern Nevada and the Las
Vegas Valley mid morning onward. The heaviest, most impactful rain
is expected during the afternoon and early evening, though there
remains uncertainty in precise timing and impacts at the terminal.
Currently, there is a 50% probability for ceilings under 3kft,
and a 25% probability for ceilings 1kft or below at times. Expect
conditions to slowly improve late evening and overnight as
precipitation begins exiting the area to the east. Winds through
the period will remain light and somewhat variable, with speeds
under 8KT.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Low
ceilings and low visibility due to moderate to heavy rainfall are
the primary aviation concerns the next 24 hours. Rain showers will
gradually overspread the area from west to east through Saturday
morning, with the heaviest precipitation expected during the
afternoon and evening. Terrain obscurations are expected, with
potential for ceilings to drop to 1-2kft in heavier rain showers.
Winds will generally remain light and somewhat variable, with the
exceptions of the Owens Valley, western Mojave, and Colorado River
Valley where gusty diurnal winds to around 20-25KT are expected
to develop late morning onward. Conditions will be slow to improve
late evening onward, with precipitation expected to move eastward
out of the area beyond the end of the period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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