


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
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816 FXUS65 KVEF 041703 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1003 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers will exit the southern Great Basin this morning, and winds will be weaker today than Friday. * Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend, with the first freeze of the season possible in Dyer, before slowly rising back to near normal during the upcoming week. * Dry weather is expected Sunday through at least Wednesday. Later in the week, there is the potential for tropical moisture to move into the Desert Southwest, but a lot of uncertainty remains. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Early morning satellite loop showed mid level low pressure centered over Lincoln County and moving east, with a band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it in far eastern Lincoln County and far western Utah, with more stratiform clouds on the back side over Nye County. Surface obs showed locally gusty winds persisting, although both the magnitude and coverage had decreased since the evening. Temperatures were about 10 degrees cooler on average around the CWA than 24 hours ago due to the low and associated cold front. As the low moves out to the east today, rain chances should be gone by mid morning. Winds will be more complex, as coupling in the heating of the day will allow stronger winds aloft to mix down as gusts, but at the same time, both pressure gradients and upper support will be weakening as the low moves out, which will limit the magnitude of the gusts to much less than what occurred Friday. In the wake of the low, today will be the coolest day for most of the CWA, followed by a very slow rise in temps through Wednesday or Thursday as heights slowly rebound. The forecast low Sunday morning in Dyer is 32F, which would be the end-of-growing-season freeze for that area (first freeze of the season), so issued a Freeze Warning for that zone. Confidence decreases for the second half of the week as a trough of low pressure approaches the West Coast, while a potential tropical system moves north near the Baja Peninsula. The interaction of these two systems will determine conditions for the end of the week. If the trough remains weaker and farther north, more ridging would remain in place across the Southwest, likely steering the tropical system away from the region. However, if the trough is stronger and further south, moisture from the tropical system could be funneled up into our area bringing the potential for rain next weekend. Stay tuned to see how the interactions of these two systems play out. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy northwesterly winds will continue into the afternoon when the 15 to 20 knot wind gusts will drop off while winds continue to favor a more northerly direction through the afternoon. Winds will fall to a more westerly direction later this evening. These light westerly winds will continue through the overnight hours, with winds becoming light and variable at times. These westerly winds will swing around to the northeast late Sunday morning, gradually veering to a more easterly direction during the late morning hours. VFR conditions expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...The cold front has pushed through southern Nevada and into the Colorado River Valley leaving northerly winds gusting to around 20 knots behind it. Stronger gusts will occur in areas of favored terrain. Winds will settle down this afternoon and evening, and wind gusts less than 20 knots can be expected areawide overnight. Winds will tend to shift to their favored nocturnal directions during the overnight hours, with light and variable winds possible at times. Mostly VFR conditions expected, with isolated MVFR ceilings in the southern Great Basin through the morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter