860
FXUS65 KVEF 171853
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1153 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Expect strong winds, blowing dust, and cooling temperatures
  through Monday as a trough moves across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Southwesterly winds have begun to develop across the forecast area
and they will continue to strengthen throughout the afternoon. The
cold front is still just to the north of the area but will begin to
push into the northern fringes during the early afternoon hours in
places like Bishop and Tonopah. The front should push through the
Las Vegas Valley between 7pm and 8pm with the winds shifting
abruptly to the northwest. Based on the latest trends with
surface pressure gradients and upper level support, the strongest
winds should be over Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye Counties where gusts
could exceed 70 mph. Keeping an eye on satellite imagery for blowing
dust potential and there is beginning to be some hints of blowing
dust coming off of some dry lake beds in Mineral County. We`ll be
watching this closely everywhere this afternoon and evening but
particulary in Death Valley National Park and southern Nye Counties.
The wind products look in good shape and no changes have been made.
Expect widespread gusts between 40 and 55 mph as well as stronger
gusts in excess of 60 mph in parts of southern Nevada and
southeastern California. Drivers should be prepared for hazardous
crosswinds and blowing dust, and boaters should be aware of waves
between 2 and 4 feet on Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, and Lake Havasu
with potential for higher waves behind the front in the Overton Arm
and Lake Mohave tonight. Showers (40-80% probability) and even an
isolated thunderstorm with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE in place
across eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties during the
afternoon and early evening hours. This strong spring system will
exit quickly on Monday and take the stronger winds with it but some
gusty northerly winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley
throughout the day on Monday.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler areawide on Monday and about
10 degrees below their seasonal normals. That will be short lived as
temperatures will climb steadily during the week, reaching back to
normal levels by Wednesday and 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late
week and into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... South
to southwest winds will continue to intensify this afternoon, with
wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots likely after 21Z. A quick shift to the
north is expected between 02Z and 03Z as a strong cold front pushes
through the valley. Strong northwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 knots
will be possible between 02Z and 06Z before gradually diminishing
through the remainder of the night. Areas of blowing dust may result
in temporary visibility reductions behind the front, with
visibilities in the range of 5 to 8 miles possible. Northerly winds
will continue through daybreak Monday but gradually ease in
intensity during the early morning hours. Periods of low-level
turbulence can be expected through the TAF period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Strong winds are
expected across much of the region this afternoon and into tonight.
For all terminals outside of KBIH, expect gusty west to southwest
winds through the afternoon, with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind a surging cold front moving
from north to south across the region. Winds behind the front will
increase to 20 to 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots to perhaps 50
knots. Winds will begin to diminish late tonight at most sites but
will remain elevated at KIFP and KEED, where the strong winds will
persist into Monday morning. For KBIH, winds will generally remain
north to northwest with gusts approaching 50 knots late this
afternoon and early evening. For all sites, aside from the strong
winds, mid and high cloudiness will move across the region in
association with the front, but bases are expected to remain AOA
15kft AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to strengthen
across much of the area this afternoon before a frontal passage
causes a shift to the north to northwest this afternoon and evening.
There will be widespread gusts between 40 and 55 mph with isolated
stronger gusts of 60 to 70 mph+. The strongest winds are expected in
Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye Counties. Precipitation is not expected
outside of eastern Lincoln County and far northern Mohave County
this afternoon and early evening with a few lightning strikes not
our of the question (20% probability). Minimum humidity falls to the
10 to 20 percent range this afternoon. Elevated to critical fire
weather conditions continue where fuels are receptive and a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for northwestern Arizona until 8 PM MST
this evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Planz

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