666
FXUS65 KVEF 291123
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
423 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across Inyo
  County and central Nevada today.

* Dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures return this
  weekend through midweek next week, with a resurgence of monsoonal
  moisture toward the middle to end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remnant moisture from former TS Juliette continues to stream across
the eastern CWA this morning. Rainfall amounts have generally been
light with areas across the lower Colorado River Valley and Mohave
County generally receiving less than a tenth of an inch. Instability
has remained rather weak due to the thick cloud cover so anything
more than just a few light to moderate showers is not expected
through this morning. This morning will continue to stream north
this morning, but most of the shower activity will end just after
sunrise leaving much of the area under mostly sunny skies. PW will
begin to lower across the region and most of the area will remain
fairly stable through the day. The one area that has the better
chance of seeing afternoon thunderstorms will be across northern
Lincoln County where CAPE values of 250-500 j/kg will exist. Still,
any thing that does develop will be fairly isolated and generally
weak.

Over the weekend, high pressure will rebuild over the region with
temperatures warming to above normal readings by Sunday. Not only
will temperatures warm, but much drier air will work into the region
ending the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms. Drier air
looks to remain in place through the early part of next week, which
is a change from previous ensemble runs. The latest ensemble runs
are showing that PW will rise to around 120-150 percent of normal by
Wednesday. We could start to see thunderstorm chances increase
Tuesday, but at this point the better opportunity for seeing
scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur during the middle to
later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...East to
northeast winds have already arrived as the remnants of Juliette
move away, and should remain near or below 10 knots through the day.
Winds could shift more southeasterly in the late afternoon, but not
much confidence in this. More confident that winds will go around to
the southwest around sunset. VFR conditions expected along with
temperatures below 100F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Mid level clouds will
exit the region to the east this morning, taking any remaining light
showers with them. Cumulus clouds will develop over the mountains
this afternoon, with chances for thunderstorms mainly in Lincoln and
Mohave counties through the evening. Away from thunderstorms, expect
VFR conditions and wind gusts under 20 knots. Smoke from the Garnet
wildfire burning on the west side of the Sierra will continue to
filter into the Owens Valley and is expected to occasionally impact
surface visibility this evening and tonight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Morgan

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