231
FXUS65 KVEF 301721
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1022 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A series of disturbances will roll through the Western US this
  week, bringing precipitation chances to the Great Basin and dry,
  breezy conditions elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Morning satellite imagery shows a broad swath of mid-level and high
clouds associated with an incoming shortwave trough. As it pushes
through the area today, light to moderate rainfall is possible (20-
50% chances) in our Sierra and southern Great Basin zones. Cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder in northern Lincoln County.
Elsewhere, dry conditions continue with an uptick in afternoon
breezes. Temperatures remain near seasonable values until late in
the week as our next system moves in. Latest model guidance seems to
be coming into better agreement on the timing and strength of the
shortwave, most-likely arriving on Friday. Similar to today`s
system, late-week precipitation chances (20-40%) look to be largely
confined to the Sierra and southern Great Basin. However, the wind
and temperature response should be more robust, with widespread
gusts of 20-40 mph on Friday and temperatures falling 4-8 degrees
below normal over the weekend. Ensemble guidance suggests troughing
will linger over the western US into next week, keeping temperatures
seasonably cool and breezes elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Southwest winds with occasional gusts of 22 to 25 knots
are expected into this evening before diminishing. Winds will remain
southwesterly overnight, but speeds will fall below 8 knots. Similar
conditions are forecast for tomorrow, although wind speeds will be
lower with only a few gusts to 15 to 20 knots expected. VFR
conditions will prevail through tomorrow, with only FEW clouds with
bases AOA 10kft AGL through this evening, then SKC.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Across most of the
region, southwest winds with intermittent gusts to 25 knots are
expected. The main exception to this will be in the Owens Valley,
where gusts will remain primarily terrain-driven with up-valley
southerly winds expected. Other than a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms over far northern Lincoln County late this morning and
early afternoon, VFR conditions are expected with FEW to SCT clouds
with bases AOA 10kft AGL through this afternoon, then mainly SKC
overnight and tomorrow.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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