309
FXUS61 KBOX 031843
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
143 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall tonight into Sunday looks even less widespread than what
was previously forecast. Bigger story is widespread cold Sunday
night into Monday. Biggest uncertainty for the long term
continues to be the potential for mixed precipitation including
freezing rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. Our next round of
wet weather looks to be around Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Sunday with little to no accumulation.

- Very cold conditions develop Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Light snow Monday evening into early morning Tuesday.

- Chance for snow and a period of mixed precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday of next week.

- More wet weather around Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1...Some light snow possible overnight into Sunday. Very
cold air follows into Monday.

Weak high pressure to the south of New England will keep a front
stalled across southern NH/VT into Sunday. A weak mid level
shortwave passes overnight into Sunday and provides just enough
forcing for scattered snow showers. High res models have very low
QPF as PWAT values only rise to 0.25-0.3".  Snow may linger a bit
longer across the Cape and Nantucket due to some ocean enhancement
as winds shift northwest Sunday morning. Overall, while most
locations will see snowfall overnight, accumulations will mostly
be less than 0.5".

Other story will be much colder air arriving behind the system later
Sunday into Sunday night. Transient area of high pressure will
provide clear and calm conditions Sunday night, sufficient for
substantial radiational cooling. Opted to go with the NBM 10th
percentile to adjust lows down. Should see widespread single digit
temperatures, especially N of of the Mass Pike where lows may even
fall into the lower single digits. Elsewhere, lows fall into the
lower teens. Thankfully not expecting apparent temps to fall much
lower as winds will be mostly light and variable.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Key Message...Light snow Monday evening into
early morning Tuesday.

High pressure in control to start the week leading to dry weather,
clear skies, and colder temperatures as cool NW flow early brings
dry, cold air overhead. This precedes a warm front that lifts north
late Monday into Monday night as a weak area of low pressure slides
overhead. This combo will lead to light scattered snow showers
overspreading the region Monday evening and overnight. Not expecting
this to be an impactful snowfall, with ensembles only indicating a
30-40% chance of >1" of snow outside of the Berkshires and Worcester
Hills (less toward the south coast of MA and RI).

Key Message 3...Chance for snow and a period of mixed
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week.

Precipitation comes to an end by sunrise Tuesday and most of the day
should be dry ahead of our next disturbance Tuesday night into
Wednesday. As a mid level shortwave and its surface reflection move
over southern New England it pulls moisture northward with PWATs
approaching 0.8". The concern is that the mid level warm front will
lead to a warm nose of above freezing air while temps at the surface
(at least initially) remain below freezing leading to a period of
freezing rain (changing to rain at least outside of the highest
elevations). It`s too soon to nail down details but forecast
soundings are concerning for the potential of at least a period of
freezing rain.


Key Message 4...More wet weather around Friday.

High pressure returns on Thursday and our next shot of unsettled
weather appears to be around Friday as a stronger shortwave
approaches. At the moment the track favors a rain event for southern
New England but it`s much too soon to say with much confidence.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.


Tonight...High confidence.

Mainly VFR becoming MVFR late. Winds become light and variable.
A chance for -SN after midnight.

Sunday...High confidence.

Light snow ends from W to E around daybreak. -SN may linger
across the Cape and Nantucket as winds shift NW Sunday morning.
Mainly VFR during the day, with brief MVFR in snowfall.

Sunday Night... High confidence.

VFR. Light and variable winds.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN,
chance FZRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
FZRA.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, chance
FZRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA,
chance FZRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance RA.

Thursday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Gusty NW winds diminish after sunset this evening. Seas
continue to subside this morning. Expecting that all remaining
Relatively light winds and seas for Sunday. Reduced visibility
in light snow late tonight into Sunday morning. Area of small
craft conditions possible in the outer waters later Sunday night
into Monday.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow, chance of
rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance
of rain.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW/FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...FT