589
ACUS01 KWNS 071255
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Early morning surface analysis places a low over southern Lower MI,
with a cold front extending back southwestward into northwest TX
before arcing more westward through the TX South Plains into
southeast NM. High pressure will continue to settle southward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the day, helping to
push the cold front farther southward/southeastward. By 00Z, this
cold front will likely extend from western NY southwestward into
southwest TX then westward across the TX Trans Pecos and
northwestward into south-central NM.

A seasonally moist airmass precedes this cold front, with ascent
along this frontal zone, as well as pre-frontal warm-air advection,
supporting the currently ongoing showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front from the central Plains into the Mid MS and OH
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front will
likely continue throughout the day, but poor lapse rates will
keeping buoyancy low and tempering storm strength. Aside from NM
(discussed below), best chance for a few stronger storms is over
north-central/northeast OH into western PA where deep-layer shear
will be a bit more orthogonal to the front.

...Western and Central New Mexico...
Upslope easterly/southeasterly surface winds are anticipated across
much of central and southern NM along the southern and western
periphery of a stalling cold front. Strong heating of this modestly
moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft will support
airmass destabilization and limited buoyancy. Upslope flow and
orographic effects combined with a very modest shortwave trough
progressing along the northern periphery of a building ridge should
provide enough lift for thunderstorm initiation. Wind profiles
featuring low-level southerlies veering to moderate
west-southwesterlies aloft should be strong enough to result in a
few stronger, more organized storms capable of large hail. Given the
high storm bases, a strong downburst or two is possible as well.
However, rising mid-level heights and modest buoyancy will likely
limit storm duration, keeping the overall severe threat marginal.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/07/2025

$$