882
FXUS63 KLOT 111056
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
556 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers (20-30%) Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Quiet weather is expected through early next week with a slow
warming trend. A cold front will move south of the area early
this morning. Some patchy fog will be possible along and ahead
of the front, but will be short in duration. Lake effect cloud
cover is expected to develop this morning and spread across
northeast IL today with partly/mostly cloudy skies near the
lake. Some of the high-res models have been periodically showing
the potential for sprinkles or a few showers but the set-up
does not look good and have removed precip chances for near Lake
Michigan today.

Low temps this morning will likely be in the upper 40s north to
50s south and these warmer temps may allow high temps to reach
the lower 70s for much of the inland areas today with perhaps
only mid 60s for the Chicago metro area with more cloud cover
and winds off the lake. Highs should reach the lower 70s for
most areas Sunday and perhaps the mid 70s Monday. Onshore winds
will keep areas near the lake cooler.

A weakening cold front will move across the area late Monday
into Monday evening. There is a small chance for a few showers
with this front, mainly across northwest IL. Much of guidance is
dry, as is the blended guidance and maintained a dry forecast.
As a warm front lifts north across the Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday, the models try to bring some of that moisture east
allowing for a low chance of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Blended pops are now in the 20-30% range and made no changes,
though as trends look now, its possible this time period may end
up being mainly dry for the local area.

High pressure is expected to be across the Great Lakes region
Wednesday and Thursday with the models and their ensembles
showing the potential for a more active pattern for the end of
next week into next weekend with possible returning precip
chances. cms

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

There are no significant aviation weather concerns anticipated
through the period.

Expect northerly winds to veer more northeasterly off the lake
this morning, with speeds around 10 kt. Speeds will then ease
below 10kt this evening as directions transition east-
southeasterly into Sunday morning.

Cloud cover looks to increase across the Chicago area terminals
this morning as the flow shifts off the lake. Bases of this
cloud cover look to be low end VFR to near MVFR (basically in
the 3,000-4,000 ft range). Any broken CIGs that result should
then gradually scatter out into this evening.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the IL
     nearshore waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the IN
     nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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