Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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129 FXUS65 KABQ 142101 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 A storm system approaches New Mexico from the southwest on Wednesday allowing shower and thunderstorm activity to increase Wednesday afternoon. There is a chance of a few strong to severe storms over the Northeast Highlands and Plains of New Mexico. Scattered showers and storms will increase in coverage across western and central New Mexico as well. Thunderstorm activity becomes more widespread on Thursday as the storm system moves across New Mexico. Coverage of storms focuses more across central, southern and eastern New Mexico. The main hazards from these storms will be hail, lightning, heavy rainfall leading to flooding and gusty downburst winds. The storm system clears out of the area Thursday night. Over the weekend temperatures push much above normal with a chance of 90 degrees in the Rio Grande Valley and 100 degrees towards Roswell. This will be some summer like heat after having below normal temperatures the first couple of weeks of May. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Showers and isolated storms have blossomed across the western and northern high terrain thanks to higher mid level moisture ahead of a baggy low over southern CA and an upper level trough over the Great Basin. These showers and storms have been pretty dry with virga, little wetting footprints and erratic wind gusts, like yesterday. KGUP has had some wind gusts of up to 35 mph this afternoon with most sites not seeing much wind as of the writing of this discussion. Shower and isolated storm activity will quickly dissipate just after sunset. However, unlike last night some mid to high level clouds will remain, mainly across northern and west central areas. Convection across Colorado will send a backdoor front into far northeast NM (Colfax and Union Counties) Thursday morning. Higher moisture will be behind the backdoor front with PWATs increasing to around 0.75 inches. Additionally, a dryline will set up just east of the NM/TX border extending south of surface low somewhere between Tucumcari and Dalhart. In the upper levels, the northern stream trough will be over the central Rockies of Colorado and the baggy low will be over southern AZ near Yuma. With this, there will be some showers and storms developing Wednesday afternoon across the north and west central mountains. These will be drier with little wetting footprints due to surface dewpoints in the 20s and 30s. However, in far northeast NM wetter showers and storms will develop off the Sangre De Cristo mountains and surrounding mesas. These storms will be capable to becoming strong to severe thanks to MLCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts, and mid level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 deg C. HREF paintball clusters show a cluster of higher dBz values in Union County. CAMs show this activity exiting into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles come the mid evening hours. Additionally, the drier shower and storm activity across western and north central NM should dissipate after sunset. The convective activity across northeast NM and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles will help surge the backdoor front through the rest of eastern NM Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The baggy upper low and northern stream upper level trough merge over the state Thursday morning with some weak upper low circulation moving across into central NM. Lift along with upslope flow across eastern NM behind the backdoor front will result in scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern NM with the highest coverage along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Storm motion will be slow to the east due to weak upper level winds under the upper low. The HPCC and McBride burn scars will need to be watched for burn scar flash flooding. Additionally, a severe weather threat will need to be watched across east central and southeast NM. A tongue of higher MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts looks to be present north of the surface low. Main risk from these storms will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 A progressive upper level trough and associated large scale lift is expected to move out of New Mexico Thursday night into Friday. Friday into Saturday the sub-tropical jet remain active and quite strong with weak ridging developing aloft. Various model solutions have differing timing of jet streaks but still agree with rising heights in the 700-300mb layer. NA Ensembles have 500mb heights getting close to the 90th percentile across southern NM during this time. Atmospheric expansion in the vertical like this will support increase temperatures. Flow at 700mb shifts from NW to SW Saturday through Sunday. This will increase downsloping and compressional heating on Sunday into Monday. 700-500mb flow increases more on Monday with an approaching jet streak. Precip chances look pretty limited as precipitable water values drop to less than half an inch. What this does mean is a boost in temperatures so 100F is not out of the question for SE NM including Roswell. In fact there is a 60 to 70 percent chance of hitting 100F at Roswell on Sunday and Monday both based on the NBM. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance of reaching 90F in ABQ Sunday. NWS Heat Risk gets into the moderate category for each of these days so this early heat could catch some folks by surprise if outside working in the heat. The only other scenario that could play out is a backdoor cold front pushing down the eastern plains on Sunday that could provide some relief however only some of the GFS solutions are showing this. ECMWF/Canadian are much slower/weaker with the front. So this scenario of the front on Sunday looks to have much lower confidence and why the forecast still leans towards the higher temperatures due to shallow front if there is one and then downsloping with SW flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Isolated showers and storms with very little wetting precipitation have developed over the northern and western mountains within the past hour. This activity will try to spread to lower elevation during the afternoon and early evening hours. Gusty and erratic wind gusts of up to 40 kts within the vicinity of convection and their associated outflows will be the main hazards. High cloud bases will allow for mainly VFR conditions. Any shower and convective activity quickly dissipates come sunset, but SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds linger across northern and west central TAF sites through the early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Shower and storm activity with little wetting footprints across the higher terrain will quickly dissipate come sunset. An uptick in moisture is expected across far northeast NM behind a backdoor front increasing the coverage of wetter showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe. Some drier showers and storms will also be possible across the north central and west central high terrain. The backdoor front surges through eastern NM Wednesday night Thursday morning as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. This will result in scattered to widespread precipitation across central and eastern NM. A few strong to severe storms could be possible across east central and southeast NM. The upper= level disturbance exits to the east Thursday night into Friday, ushering in drier air from the northwest and putting an end to precipitation. The subtropical jet stream lifts back north into New Mexico Sunday, bringing back typical breezy spring winds. Southwest flow trends stronger early next week, leading to the development of critical fire weather conditions in western and central NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 46 78 46 77 / 20 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 37 75 35 72 / 10 30 5 30 Cuba............................ 42 73 42 67 / 10 40 10 40 Gallup.......................... 39 75 40 73 / 20 30 10 10 El Morro........................ 41 71 41 68 / 20 50 20 30 Grants.......................... 39 76 40 71 / 30 30 10 30 Quemado......................... 41 73 42 69 / 10 30 20 40 Magdalena....................... 49 76 47 70 / 10 20 10 40 Datil........................... 43 73 42 68 / 20 20 20 40 Reserve......................... 37 80 39 74 / 5 20 5 30 Glenwood........................ 51 84 51 78 / 0 5 0 20 Chama........................... 36 68 36 65 / 20 50 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 49 70 46 65 / 10 40 20 60 Pecos........................... 45 73 45 63 / 20 40 30 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 41 66 44 60 / 30 60 40 60 Red River....................... 34 63 36 56 / 30 70 50 70 Angel Fire...................... 32 65 34 55 / 10 60 40 70 Taos............................ 38 72 39 65 / 20 40 20 60 Mora............................ 40 70 40 58 / 10 50 30 70 Espanola........................ 47 78 47 73 / 10 30 20 50 Santa Fe........................ 49 74 47 66 / 10 40 30 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 77 47 70 / 10 30 20 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 81 53 74 / 10 20 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 82 52 76 / 10 10 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 84 52 78 / 10 10 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 81 53 76 / 10 10 20 30 Belen........................... 49 84 49 77 / 10 10 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 53 83 52 76 / 10 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 49 84 49 77 / 10 10 20 40 Corrales........................ 52 83 52 77 / 10 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 50 84 50 76 / 10 10 20 40 Placitas........................ 52 79 51 71 / 10 20 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 53 82 52 76 / 10 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 54 86 53 81 / 10 5 10 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 73 47 65 / 10 20 30 50 Tijeras......................... 49 77 47 69 / 10 20 30 50 Edgewood........................ 45 78 44 68 / 5 20 20 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 79 43 69 / 5 10 20 50 Clines Corners.................. 44 74 43 62 / 5 10 20 60 Mountainair..................... 46 78 45 69 / 10 10 30 40 Gran Quivira.................... 45 78 44 69 / 5 5 20 50 Carrizozo....................... 54 84 52 75 / 0 0 5 50 Ruidoso......................... 50 76 46 66 / 0 5 5 60 Capulin......................... 43 66 42 59 / 20 80 50 60 Raton........................... 42 71 43 63 / 10 70 50 60 Springer........................ 44 72 45 64 / 10 60 30 60 Las Vegas....................... 44 72 43 61 / 10 40 30 70 Clayton......................... 52 74 49 65 / 10 60 40 40 Roy............................. 48 75 47 63 / 10 50 30 60 Conchas......................... 53 84 53 70 / 10 30 30 50 Santa Rosa...................... 51 82 50 69 / 5 10 20 50 Tucumcari....................... 52 87 52 71 / 5 20 30 50 Clovis.......................... 55 90 54 72 / 0 20 30 50 Portales........................ 54 91 53 75 / 0 10 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 52 88 52 74 / 0 10 20 50 Roswell......................... 59 95 59 81 / 0 0 5 40 Picacho......................... 54 86 51 72 / 0 0 0 50 Elk............................. 52 86 48 72 / 0 0 0 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...71