812
FXUS61 KAKQ 190155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
955 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers shift south of the region late tonight into Sunday.
Light rain or drizzle overnight will give way to a drier day
Sunday, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day.
Dry weather and a clearing sky returns for Monday, with a
warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle
of the week of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dreary overnight with overcast skies and spotty
  light rain or drizzle.

Latest analysis indicates a slow-moving frontal boundary draped
just south of the local area this evening. To the north,
1024+mb cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from
Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a positively
tilted upper trough/low pressure over the mid-south with
numerous weak spokes of shortwave energy overrunning the slow-
moving front mainly just to our south. Steadier showers of
earlier this evening have tapered to some spotty light rain and
drizzle, with more organized showers from Bertie County south
into east/SE NC.

Showers gradually diminish overnight over the far southern
zones, with spotty light rain or drizzle over southern VA into
NE NC. A mainly overcast sky overnight with occasional drizzle
and some patchy fog developing. Early morning lows mainly in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High
  temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into
  the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the
Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday
across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north
and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the
coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the
area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn
hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees
warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach
at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the
mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach
the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would
suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res
guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun
night will be in the mid 50s.

High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves
farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore
flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast
to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95
warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer
still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out,
and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps
at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the
coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period

- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday

The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place
and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies
continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper
70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that
a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but
timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains
uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields chance PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday.
With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated,
went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule
out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on
Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around
80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another
chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft
passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another
chance for scattered storms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions continue to begin the 00z TAF
period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR over
central VA IVOF KRIC. Slightly higher MVFR to low-end VFR along
the coast at SBY/PHF/ORF likely continue through the evening,
then CIGs to drop back into IFR range after midnight. More
organized showers have diminished to areas of light
rain/drizzle along the coast, with the drizzle and patchy fog to
hamper visibility overnight at times. Farther south closer to
the quasi-stationary frontal boundary, ECG remains in IFR and
will likely bounce between IFR/LIFR CIGs overnight. E winds
become NE overnight ~7-10 kt.

Outlook: Conditions improve slowly but steadily through the day
Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry. However, BKN-OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGs still look slow to scatter out, leaving a mainly
overcast, cool day. CIGs should briefly return to VFR late
SUnday, only to degrade back to IFR/MVFR Sunday night. VFR
conditions return for Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft
  advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the
  marine area later tonight.

Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while
sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE
5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3
ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track east and off
the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away
from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly
builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun
ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas
build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind
reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from
Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the
Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to
Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure
builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low
pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore
later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining
sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and
then 2-3 ft by midweek.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening,
with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high
for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and
building seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 950 PM EDT Saturday...

Flood Warnings have been cancelled for Nottoway River near
Stony Creek.

Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead
to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early
next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood
thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over-
performance would lead to additional flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next
several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow
will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this
weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle
Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and
southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...AM/MAM
SHORT TERM...AM/SW
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...