775
FXUS61 KBGM 190645
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog and clouds will be slowly dissipate through the morning
hours with more sun than clouds by mid afternoon and
temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even
warmer with dry weather continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
245 AM Update:

This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have
not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the
forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor
imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time
heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the
surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model
guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as
deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to
more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to
put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the
model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with
dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills
could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but
confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast.

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational
cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog
will likely develop again in the river valleys.

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to
rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence
inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped
despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat
and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain
will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the
cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue
into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM Update

High pressure will be over the region, the ridge likely to
remain in place through the short term period. This will result
in winds shifting to south-southwesterly gradually bringing in
a warmer and slightly more humid airmass. Temperatures rise well
above average, with highs 80 to 85 on Monday for most locations.
Warming up even a bit more on Tuesday, with highs well into the
80s areawide. There will be a slight chance for a thunderstorm
over the western Finger Lakes Monday evening along the lake
breeze front, then up north of I-90 Tuesday afternoon/evening.
This will be associated with a weak wave over the top of the
ridge.Tuesday night is warm and muggy with lows in the upper
50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM Update

The large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region
Wednesday morning before being chipped away by an approaching
cold front late in the day. This front then looks to break down
the ridge by Thursday. Temperatures continue to trend warmer
mid-week, with highs now 85 to 90 in the forecast Wednesday
afternoon. Dew points are slightly humid in the lower 60s, this
will keep heat indices close to the actual temperature and not
much higher. Overnight lows are warm and muggy in the low to
mid-60s Wednesday night.

Enough lift, moisture and instability looks present for at
least some scattered showers & T`storms Wednesday evening out
ahead of the main cold frontal passage. Exact timing and
location of the prefrontal trough remains a little uncertain
still. Instability during the afternoons is moderate, with
surface CAPE currently modeled from about 500-1000 J/KG so some
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Deep layer shear is
only about 20-25 kts Wednesday afternoon.

If the current timing holds, the main cold front would pass
through the region on Thursday. Out ahead of the front MLCAPE
would be between 600-1200 J/kg, with deep layer shear increasing
to 40-50 kts Thursday afternoon. This scenario could lead to
some more organized thunderstorm activity. However, there are
still some timing differences with the operational models and
ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean
more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the
timing differences it is still to early to determine the
potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

After the front passes through, it looks to cool down and dry
out Thursday night. Lows will dip down into the upper 40s to
mid-50s. Friday is now forecast to be mainly dry with weak high
pressure in place and seasonable temperatures. There remain many
difference in the weather pattern by next Saturday; the model
guidance seems to be trending toward a drier pattern for our
area in the more recent runs. Confidence remains a bit low on
just how the up coming Memorial Day weekend weather will play
out. For now followed the NBM/Ensemble guidance which gives
partly sunny skies and a low chance for scattered rain showers,
with highs in the low to mid-70s next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low stratus has cleared from SYR, RME and ELM, but remain at
BGM, ITH, and AVP. ELM has developed fog already that will
likely last to around 12Z. RME will likely start to see patchy
fog in the next few hours. SYR will have the toughest time to
get fog to develop but given the low level moisture, some
IFR restrictions are possible so put in a tempo for just before
sunrise.

The stratus has been IFR at BGM and ITH with the elevation of
the airports and AVP has been holding on to MVFR cigs for now.
As winds aloft become a little more northerly at AVP, the cigs
will likely drop to IFR into 12Z. The stratus will likely hold
through the rest of the night but if it clears, fog development
will occur quickly keeping mostly IFR or worse restrictions into
12Z.

Tomorrow is looking VFR once all the fog clears out as dry air
will scatter out any remaining cigs. Winds will be light and
variable with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers
possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MJM/MWG
LONG TERM...MJM/MWG
AVIATION...AJG