Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270616
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system is bringing clouds and showers to the area
through Thursday. Dry and partly sunny conditions are expected
for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool. The upcoming weekend
features seasonable temperatures with a chance for scattered
rain showers on Saturday, with dry and mostly sunny weather
returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM update...

Same as last time. Temperatures still mostly in the 50s so
raised. With little rain tonight temperatures will stay mild.
Rain on radar along I81 only doing a few sprinkles out of a mid
deck. The next surge now over Lake Erie will get here after
midnight. Lowered pops tonight but kept the likely pops
Wednesday into Wed night.

5 PM update...

Updated to increase hourly and max temperatures to the mid and
upper 50s and low 60s. Also made it cloudy everywhere into
Wednesday. Slowed the onset of light rain moving into the
central southern tier and Finger Lakes this evening.

245 PM Update

Light rain will start pushing into the region late tonight out
ahead of a weak frontal system. Scattered rain showers continue
overnight, with the highest PoPs and QPF across Central NY
where up to quarter of an inch of rain could fall. All
precipitation should fall as rain as temperatures will stay mild
overnight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The front will push across our area tomorrow and stall around
the Hudson Valley. This should keep the bulk of the shower
activity to the east of I81 corridor. Depending exactly where
the front stalls out will determine where the showers will
continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

Frontal system will stall out near the Hudson Valley or further
east into New England. A coastal low will push north along the
Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday and Thursday night and will likely
interact with this frontal boundary. At this time, it appears
that this system will be east of our area based on the latest
consensus between the 12z model guidance. Lingering showers on
Thursday afternoon will be possible across the Catskills and
eastern Poconos depending on where exactly this boundary ends up.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday night behind the front
with lows dipping into the upper 20s and low 30s across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM Update...

The end of the week will be quiet with high pressure building in
on Friday across the Eastern U.S. A weak and moisture starved
clipper system is forecast to push across the area late
Saturday through Sunday morning. Rain will be the main ptype,
but there may also be some snow across the northern forecast
area and the higher elevations of the Catskills overnight,
however any accumulations will be very light. Conditions should
dry out through the day on Sunday as high pressure takes back
control and it will likely persist through the start of next
week.

After that, too much uncertainty exists with the potential Day 7
system on Tuesday. There are timing and track differences
between model guidance, which is to be expected this far out,
so NBM guidance was favored for now and PoPs were capped at 70%
for any 6 hour period Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 AM Update

It is still VFR for most of our taf sites at this time. However,
AVP is already MVFR fuel alt, as lower level clouds have pushed
in from the south/east here. MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions
are expected to continue here for the rest of the day and early
evening...then potentially falling to IFR here with low clouds
and mist after 28/02z or so. AVP will see periods of rain,
steady at times between about 13z and 00z today.

BGM is still VFR, but expected to have tempo MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs
develop before 10z early this morning. BGM will be on the edge
of an MVFR cloud deck and rain shield through the morning hours,
but looks to lift back to VFR during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The CIGs then settle back down to MVFR Fuel Alt
by 00z, and fall even further to IFR after 28/03z as a cool
frontal boundary stalls over the area and winds shift westerly.

ELM is still VFR, but CIGs could fall into the MVFR/MVFR Fuel
Alt category over the next several hours and remain there until
mid-morning. By late morning and afternoon a return to VFR
conditions is expected here, as it will be west of the rain
shield and clouds look to scatter and/or lift up to a mid level
deck. As the cool front approaches and winds shift northerly,
it will usher in lower CIGs back to at least MVFR this evening
(after about 28/01z).

ITH looks to remain mainly VFR today, with a sct to bkn cloud
deck between about 030ft and 080ft expected much of the day.
Again, as the front pushes through about 01z this evening, MVFR
fuel alt CIGs are expected here through the end of the taf
period, along with a few scattered showers.

SYR looks to remain mainly VFR today, with a sct to bkn cloud
deck between about 060ft and 110ft expected much of the day.
Again, as the front pushes through about 00z this evening, MVFR
CIGs are expected here for several hours, along with a few
scattered showers. Also there will be LLWS here through around
14z this morning; with southerly winds around 35kts at 2k ft agl.

RME remains mainly VFR today, but can`t rule out some tempo MVFR
CIGs as a few rain showers pass by early this morning.
Otherwise, it will be sct to bkn clouds between about 035 to
050 ft much of the day. After about 28/01z CIGs settle back down
to MVFR here through the end of the taf period.

Outlook...

Late Tonight..Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR west. Restrictions possible in rain/mist
for AVP, BGM and perhaps RME. (Low to moderate confidence)

Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A weak clipper system could
bring rain showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/TAC
NEAR TERM...MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MJM/TAC


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