377
ACUS01 KWNS 310052
SWODY1
SPC AC 310051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat, with a possibility for wind damage and hail will
likely continue this evening across parts of the southern Plains and
central High Plains. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter, and an isolated tornado threat will be possible in parts
of west Texas. A marginal severe threat is expected to continue for
a couple more hours in parts of the mid Missouri Valley.

...Southern Plains/Central High Plains...
The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass located across
most of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas extending westward into southeast
Colorado. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts
of west Texas, the Texas Panhandle and southeast Colorado. RAP
forecast soundings early this evening from near Amarillo southward
to Midland, TX show a favorable environment for supercells with
large hail, with MLCAPE from 2500 to 4000 J/kg, 700-500 mb lapse
rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km, and 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot
range. A potential will exist for hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter, and a tornado or two from near Lubbock southward to
Midland, where the combination of instability, shear and lapse rates
appears most favorable.

Further to the north across the Texas Panhandle, a linear MCS is
ongoing. A potential will exist for severe wind gusts along and
ahead of the leading edge of the line. However, the outflow
associated with the line is well out ahead of the convection. This
suggests that the severe weather potential could remain more
isolated as the line moves southeastward this evening into parts of
northwest and west-central Texas.

Further to the east into the Sabine River Valley, another severe
linear MCS is ongoing. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an
axis of instability from southeast Texas into western Louisiana,
where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the line are in the mid to upper 70s F, which is
reflected on the 00Z sounding at Lake Charles. On this sounding, 0-6
km shear is near 30 knots and a substantial amount of directional
shear exists within the 850 to 700 mb layer. This could be favorable
for continued linear organization. A potential for severe wind gusts
and hail will be possible with the stronger cores within the line.

...Mid Missouri Valley...
The latest surface analysis shows a narrow corridor of maximized
low-level moisture from northeast Nebraska into western Minnesota.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the moist axis.
The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, forecast soundings early this evening have 0-6 km shear in
the 25 to 30 knot range, which could be enough for an isolated
potential for hail and strong wind gusts for a couple more hours.
However, lapse rates are poor which should keep any severe threat
marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2024

$$