Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 111725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The frustrating system that brought periods of freezing rain
and locally moderate to heavy snow continues to pull away from the
region. Main upper level low will spin south into KS/MO thru the
rest of the morning with some lingering light snow possible over NW
Iowa for the next couple of hours. As the ice growth zone dries out,
could see some patchy freezing drizzle develop thru the morning
hours in areas along and east of I-29. Anything that does develop
should remain very light but nonetheless could cause some patchy
slick spots.

Northwest winds of 10-20 mph and residual cloud cover will keep high
temperatures this afternoon below normal, or generally low to mid
30s. Clouds will clear from west to east thru the afternoon and
evening hours. With the added boundary layer moisture, clearing
skies and relatively light winds, will need to watch the potential
for some fog tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The first part of the extended forecast continues to look uneventful
with a gradual warming trend. Monday and Tuesday our region sits in
north/northwest flow aloft as an upper level ridge amplifies over
the western conus. This ridge nudges eastward by Wednesday and
Thursday with warmer temperatures expected during this time frame.
Temperatures at 925 mb are cooler than were advertised last night at
this time, especially in the GFS as it hints at a weak wave/frontal
boundary impacting the region Thursday. Not expecting any
precipitation with this but could play havoc with temperatures.

Deterministic models, along with the GFS ensemble, are now in better
agreement with denting our ridge by Friday and dampening hope at
significantly warmer temperatures. Still a several standard
deviation spread in the model temperatures though so will be
something that needs to be refined as we get closer. The Friday
into the weekend time frame could also be our next chance of
meaningful precipitation, although details among models are still
very inconsistent.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

MVFR stratus will be slow to shift east. Clearing line will
approach the I-29 corridor this evening. Clearing skies overnight
should lead to a fairly pleasant day on Monday, with the potential
for fog Monday night.




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