981
FXUS63 KGID 122128
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
428 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this
  afternoon, and continue into the evening and overnight. Rain
  chances will slowly subside from NW to SE on Monday.

- General pattern for the upcoming week will be off and on
  chances for showers and thunderstorms with several passing
  disturbances in the zonal to NW flow - most notably Tue night
  into Wed and Fri/Fri night into Sat.

- Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant each day in the 70s
  and 80s - very low risk for anything extreme.

- Risk for severe weather appears to be seasonably low for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Areas of showers were fairly and hit and miss much of the
morning hrs, but have since increased in coverage and intensity
(quite a bit more lightning) this afternoon. This was aided by
some periods of filtered sunshine that allowed temperatures to
warm into the low to mid 70s in spots, which is essentially
convective temperatures for today. Cold mid level temps
associated with cut off low pressure area in NW KS have aided in
steepening lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of
CAPE to develop, but effective shear is very weak. Thus, not
expecting much more than localized heavy downpours, pea size
hail, and gusty winds in the strongest of cores. Will likely see
a decr in coverage and intensity with loss of daytime heating
after sunset, though at least widely scattered activity will
continue into the overnight. Models have trended a bit slower
with the exit of the system on Monday, so areas particularly
E/SE/S of the Tri-Cities could hang onto showers, perhaps a few
weak storms, through the AM hrs and even into early aftn.
Elsewhere, rain-free areas will warm into at least the low to
mid 70s amidst brzy N-NE winds during the aftn.

The rest of the forecast is really just more of the same -
chances for showers and thunderstorms, which look to be mostly
non-severe, every couple of days due to series of generally weak
mid to upper level disturbances in active zonal to NW flow. This
will prevent temperatures from straying too far above or below
normal. In fact latest ensemble guidance shows pretty tight
clustering in the low 70s to low 80s pretty much each day
through Friday. Spread increases into next weekend due to
differences/uncertainty in timing and amplitude of systems by
then. Despite the active pattern, in general, severe chances
appear fairly minimal as the frequency of systems/front prevents
the real juicy/unstable air from making it into the area before
the next front pushes it back south. Models indicate at least a
chance for higher instability at some point next weekend, but
again, confidence on details is low at this time.

In the meantime, Tuesday and Thursday are best chances to remain
dry this week, and Tuesday will even have only light and
variable winds. Monday AM, Wednesday, and at some point Fri
into Sat are the periods to watch for moisture, but even these
are not looking to be overly widespread or persistent periods of
showers and thunderstorms. So all in all, pretty nice by mid-
May standards!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR with BKN mid to high clds will give way to incr potential
for scat thunderstorms this aftn and early evening. Coverage and
placement is still uncertain, so only have VCTS at this time.
Any tstms will transition to mainly rain showers late this
evening and into the overnight, but again, coverage/duration at
the terminals is low confidence. In general, rain chcs should
decr from W to E in roughly the 09-12Z time frame. CIGs and
VSBYs are also low confidence and will be somewhat dependent on
how widespread the rain shwrs are. Recent HRRR runs have really
backed off on the MVFR-IFR CIGs tonight, whereas most other
guidance has low clds, though to varying degrees. With some E-NE
upslope component to low level flow and fairly high BL RH the
general pattern would seem to support the idea of MVFR to IFR
CIGs (and perhaps sub-VFR VSBYs) thru mid-AM Mon. Clds should
gradually decrease late Mon AM into the aftn.

Winds will be quite variable in direction through this evening,
then bec mainly E to NNE tonight into Mon AM...though speeds
will be light throughout at generally 5-10kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies