447
ACUS11 KWNS 200843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200843
OKZ000-201015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Areas affected...northeastern and east-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266...

Valid 200843Z - 201015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266
continues.

SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging gusts will likely continue over
the next 1 to 2 hours, though a gradual decrease in convective
intensity is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of convection across
roughly the northeastern quarter of Oklahoma -- most intense along
its southern flank.  As the individual storms move in a generally
easterly direction at around 35 kt, the overall area of storms
continues to sag gradually southeastward -- north of
southward-moving outflow.

With the convection slightly elevated for the most part atop the
aforementioned outflow, severe-caliber wind gusts have become
sparse, with the last reported about around 3 AM at Tulsa (51 kt).
In general, a slow decreasing trend in convective intensity (and
thus severe potential) should continue over the next couple of
hours, as storms encounter a progressive/gradual decrease in
surface-based instability both areally and temporally.  Still, an
occasional stronger gust or two -- near severe levels -- will remain
possible in the short term.

..Goss.. 05/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35699739 36309717 36089689 36109625 36429577 36609534
            36239462 35809456 35379508 35129615 35699739