Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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447 FXUS63 KOAX 110258 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 958 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Sunday through Thursday. Highest precipitation chances (60-80%) during that timeframe are Sunday night into Monday. No severe weather is currently anticipated. - Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .Remainder of this afternoon through Saturday: A weak surface front/wind shift associated with a vigorous shortwave trough over MN/WI will move through the area this afternoon with an isolated shower or two possible along it. By this evening, both clouds and winds will decrease, allowing for favorable viewing conditions for tonight`s Aurora, which should be visible on the northern horizon for many. Abundant sunshine and weak warm advection will allow for slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. .Sunday and Monday: A mid/upper-level low situated over the Great Basin this afternoon will progress east into the central and southern Plains during this time period in tandem with a surface low, which will ultimately pass to our south. Increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching midlevel system will support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday, amidst a weakly unstable environment. The models do suggest the potential for greater air mass destabilization to occur along the periphery of the denser cloud cover near the SD border into west-central IA. But, even there, vertical shear is forecast to remain quite weak, limiting any severe weather threat. Highs on Sunday will be a function of cloud and precipitation coverage with readings generally in the mid 70s to perhaps low 80s. As mentioned above, the low pressure system will pass to our south Sunday night and Monday with the highest PoPs (60-80%) and precipitation totals likely being confined to locations along and south of I-80. Monday`s highs will be slightly cooler; in the low 70s. .Tuesday through Thursday: It currently appears that Tuesday will be dry with the mid-MO Valley residing between the above-mentioned weather system passing to our east and the next shortwave trough amplifying over the Rockies into northern Plains. More sunshine will allow for slightly warmer conditions with highs in the mid 70s. The midlevel trough will advance east into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday with the system potentially lingering into Thursday. In the low levels, 12z global ensemble data suggest that an associated surface cold front will move through the mid-MO Valley either Wednesday or Wednesday night. The forecast will indicate increasing PoPs (30-60%) Tuesday night with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through Thursday. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening, both the EPS and GEFS indicate less than a 30-40% chance of CAPE >= 500 J/kg developing ahead of the front. Those numbers suggest a relatively low chance of sufficient instability for severe-storm development, especially given that vertical shear will remain rather weak. Temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 70s both days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will remain light out of the WNW at 5-10kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...KG