Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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573 FXUS63 KOAX 130838 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 338 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms move east out of the region today with another round forecast for Wednesday- Thursday. Nothing looks particularly severe at this time. - Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of next week, though temperatures approach 80 next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The radar is lit up with scattered showers spinning cyclonically with the spin of the stacked low over centered over Norfolk, NE. MRMS rainfall estimates range from zero up along the SD state line to over 2" along parts of the NE/IA state line. A perusal of personal weather stations at 230 AM reveals numerous 1" reports around the Omaha metro. Eppley is at 0.98". Lincoln is closer to 0.3". Showers will end from west to east over the course of the day with mostly dry conditions expected by this afternoon in southwest Iowa where showers will be most reluctant to end. New to the forecast is the introduction of some "haze" to the forecast for today. It`s based on the HRRR/RAP near surface smoke forecast. Directly ingested it to produce some haze working north to south across eastern Nebraska this afternoon behind the sagging cold front slipping out of the Dakotas. The smoke originated in BC and Alberta in western Canada. Don`t believe it will be particularly dense and it should not limit visibility, but those sensitive to air quality reductions from particulates should take note and avoid unnecessary time outdoors. .TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY... A transitive ridge helps flip the script on the winds, turning them from the northeast to coming out of the southeast by Tuesday afternoon. They`ll remain slow and negligible. Expect mid to upper 70s for afternoon high temps. Another round of spring showers pushes in from the west late on Tuesday night with a small slice of a warm sector that will push through the CWA. Even with Wednesday`s peak heating, instability is maximized along a ribbon of 1000 J/kg CAPE accompanied by meager shear. Forecast soundings do not look conducive to much more than some lightning and thunder once again. QPF values max out at 0.35" with less expected north of I-80. .LATE INTO THE WEEK... Have maintained NBM`s isolated PoPs as-is for Friday and into the weekend with significant model variability producing a blurred precip outlook. Expect PoPs to come into focus for certain time frames as the weekend approaches. General ridging should help increase heights and push afternoon high temperatures into the low 80s for the weekend. Enjoy the spring weather while it lasts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Scattered showers ongoing across eastern NE and western IA are expected to linger overnight and Monday morning, mainly at KOMA and KLNK. MVFR ceilings currently being reported at KLNK may oscillate between VFR and MVFR for the next few hours with prevailing MVFR conditions developing by 09z and lingering through Monday morning. Latest model data suggest prevailing MVFR ceilings will develop at KOMA in the 10-12z timeframe and linger through Monday morning. A brief period of prevailing MVFR conditions are possible at KOFK, but there`s much less confidence in that occurrence compared to at KLNK and KOMA. Finally, light and variable winds will eventually become northeast and increase to 12-13 kt with higher gusts by 17-18z Monday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Mead