592
FXUS65 KPIH 100734
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
134 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday.

- Breezy today.

- Warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Low pressure will exit the region today. Upper level flow turns
northwest for the next couple days which will allow for cooler, more
normal temperatures. Winds look breezy today, with winds approaching
lake wind advisory levels this afternoon. NBM shows a 50% chance of
reaching levels today. However most of the traditional rule of
thumbs indicate that we`ll be just short of reaching those levels.
So, we`ll hold off on issuing a lake wind this afternoon. Weather
looks dry or mostly dry through Thursday with the main storm track
north of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Under the increasing influence of high pressure this weekend into
early next week, temperatures will trend warmer with highs back in
the 80s/90s starting Saturday. Courtesy of that ridge of high
pressure overhead, conditions look to remain dry into early next
week. Ensemble model guidance supports a series of shortwave troughs
working up and over this ridge feature along the Continental Divide
for next week, supporting the potential for some isolated shower and
thunderstorm development in the mountains during the afternoon and
evening hours in that 10-20% chance range. Given the bulk of
moisture looks to stay east of the Divide with these shortwaves,
coverage here in southeast Idaho will remain focused along the
Montana Divide into the Eastern Highlands as dry conditions prevail
overall. Winds will peak diurnally each afternoon for next week with
gusts peaking around 20-30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Mid- and high-level clouds will continue shifting eastward tonight
with mostly clear skies by around sunrise. Showers and isolated
thunderstorm gusts 35 to 50 kts will continue to shift eastward.
Synoptic winds will increase again Thursday afternoon with gusts
ranging 20 to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Following a departing cold front into Wyoming this morning with
isolated showers and thunderstorms, cooler and dry conditions will
return for Thursday and Friday as zonal flow prevails. Winds will
remain elevated again today, peaking this afternoon around 10-25 mph
with gusts to 20-40 mph. Due to a combination of breezy winds and
low RHs this afternoon in the teens/20s, elevated weather conditions
will exist. Winds will lessen for Friday, peaking around 10-15 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph. Under the increasing influence of high
pressure this weekend into early next week, temperatures will trend
warmer with highs back in the 80s/90s starting Saturday. Courtesy of
that ridge of high pressure overhead, conditions look to remain dry
into early next week. Ensemble model guidance supports a series of
shortwave troughs working up and over this ridge feature along the
Continental Divide for next week, supporting the potential for some
isolated shower and thunderstorm development in the mountains during
the afternoon and evening hours in that 10-20% chance range. Given
the bulk of moisture looks to stay east of the Divide with these
shortwaves, coverage here in southeast Idaho will remain focused
along the Montana Divide into the Eastern Highlands as dry
conditions prevail overall. Winds will peak diurnally each afternoon
for next week with gusts peaking around 20-30 mph, which will need
to be monitored for any overlap of gusty winds and low RH given RHs
each afternoon will drop to the teens/20s.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay