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000
FXUS65 KPIH 161940
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
140 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.
A Canadian cold front will drop south overnight and expect snow to
return to the eastern highlands with snow levels dropping from 7
thousand feet to under 5 thousand feet overnight. General snow
amounts of 3 to 5 inches above 7 thousand feet and 1 to 3 inches
below 7 thousand feet are expected in most of the eastern
highlands with much lighter amounts in the central mountains. Main
impact will be some travel impacts late tonight into Wednesday
which may affect some morning rush hour commutes. It will remain
cool with lows overnight in the 20s and 30s with highs Wednesday
mainly in the 30s high elevations and 40s to near 50 low
elevation. It will remain breezy to windy overnight through
Wednesday with 15 to 25 mph winds continuing in the Snake River
Plain tonight and Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night will mainly be
in the teens and 20s.
GK

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. More light showers are
expected Thursday across our northern terrain areas, as the next
wave embedded low/trough hanging out across Montana and the Idaho
Panhandle. It shouldn`t be breezy at all, but remain on the cool
side...with highs in the valleys sitting in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
That fits quite nicely within the cluster forecasts as well. As
similar pattern is expected Friday, although it should be 5-10
degrees warmer based on our latest Blend of Models. Interestingly
enough, 80% of the clusters actually have the pattern shifted
farthest south...similar to the NAM. The GFS, ECMWF and rest of the
clusters keep the last "wave" much farther north as the pattern
begins to shift east. If we end up with the pattern shifted farther
south, that warmup will be much less if at all vs Thursday. Saturday
looks dry as high pressure briefly pops up overhead, with a return
to showers across the north and south along the Wyoming border
Sunday. This matches with our Blend of Models, ECMWF and around 40-
45% of the cluster forecasts. The rest of the clusters and GFS keep
the low topping the ridge well to our north, which would mean some
passing clouds but dry and warmer than the ongoing forecast. We get
a brief break before showers and thunderstorms try and make a
comeback starting Tuesday. Temperatures should warm into the 70s by
early next week down low, with ridgetop highs in the 40s. This will
help increase snowmelt and runoff. The main driver, the overnight
lows, do jump back above freezing at lower elevations starting
Saturday. They do make a dramatic jump starting Sunday in the
mountains...which would not help slow down that issue during
overnight hours.  Keyes

 &&

.AVIATION...Gusty winds will persist through the next 24 hours. We
will see gusts at time through this evening of 15-25kts at SUN and
15-20kts tomorrow. All other TAF sites will see gusts of 20-35kts
both afternoons. There is the potential for showers to impact IDa,
PIH and DIJ with the first low riding the Divide tonight and
Wednesday. We have at least VCSH for those TAF sites. The
expectation is to remain VFR, and down to MVFR with any showers that
impact an airport directly.  Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$