057
FXUS65 KPUB 302023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection to linger across the higher terrain and adjacent
  plains this evening, with the main threats being periods of
  heavy rain, gusty winds up to 45 mph, small hail and frequent
  lightning.

- Temperatures quickly rebound on Tuesday, reaching near normal
  levels and with very little variation through the extended
  forecast.

- Daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
  mainly tied to the higher terrain. Best chance for additional
  significant precipitation comes on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Currently...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms continue across the
higher terrain this afternoon, but interestingly nil activity across
the eastern plains, especially after such an active early morning.
Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the mid 70s to around 80F for the
high valleys, and 70s to mid 80s for the plains. Easterly winds at
the surface have been reported across much of the area, even making
it into the San Luis Valley and into the upper Arkansas River Valley.

Tonight...Models tend to agree on maintaining thunderstorm activity
across the higher terrain through the remainder of this afternoon
and into the evening, such that there is actually an increase in the
QPF in the vicinity of the northern Sangres and Fremont County. WPC
has picked up on this while noting the slow movement of storms, and
has painted a Slight area for excessive rainfall up across the
higher terrain this evening. Meanwhile, across the eastern plains
pcpn potential is starting to weaken a bit, and while the I-25
corridor still has the chance for scattered activity, it is looking
much more isolated farther east. Therefore, the main concern through
tonight continues to be the flash flood potential for area burn
scars and other high-risk areas, from repeated rounds of moderate to
heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms. Overnight low temps are
forecast to cool into the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to
around 60F for the plains.

Tomorrow...An upper ridge of high pressure will remain across the
Four Corners and Rocky Mt region on Tuesday, while an upper low
pressure center remains stationed just off the CA coast. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again fire over the higher terrain by
midday, with some isolated activity spilling over across the I-25
Corridor through the afternoon. With the high directly overhead,
storm movement will be very slow, and even though QPF amounts are
not overly impressive there are still flooding concerns for area
burn scars, and WPC has included much of southern CO in a Marginal
area for excessive rainfall. As for temps, the entire area quickly
rebounds with readings expected to climb to near normal for this
time of year. Look for highs in the mid 70s to around 80F for the
high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Not all that much change is anticipated in the overall weather
pattern during the long term period. General midlevel troughieness
over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a
generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the
plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday
weekend and beyond. Expect max temps in the U80s to M90 plains, with
temps in the 70s mtns. Valleys should see temps in the L/M80s. At
this time, it appears the wettest day will be this upcoming Thursday
over the higher terrain. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR to intermittent MVFR conditions across much of the forecast area
today into this evening due to greater chance for showers and
thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain and adjacent plains,
affecting the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. VFR
conditions forecast for all areas starting by 05z tonight and
lasting through the end of the forecast period.

KCOS: VCSH starting at 19z with PROB30 from 20z-01z for -TSRA, VRB
gusts to 28 kts and MVFR cigs.

KPUB: PROB30 from 20z-01z for-TSRA, VRB gusts to 28 kts and lowering
cigs.

KALS: TEMPO from 20z-24z for -TSRA and VRB gusts to 35 kts, then
PROB30 from 00z-04z for -TSRA and lowering cigs/vsby. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE