475
FXUS65 KPUB 200552
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon over
   the far eastern plains.

 - Warm, dry, and windy for Monday, with isolated thunderstorms
   favoring the higher terrain and Palmer Divide. Critical fire
   weather conditions in place for the Sangres and the Wet Mt
   Valley.

 - Other than mountain showers overnight, dry conditions are
   expected for the region Monday night.

 - Isolated to scattered showers expected for mostly the
   mountains through much of the upcoming week, with mostly dry
   conditions elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Currently...Isolated thunderstorm activity along the Palmer Divide,
and stronger activity over the southeast corner of the state, is
expected to persist until around 4 or 5 PM this evening, before
quickly pushing east into KS. Interestingly, 45-50 degree dewpoints
had seeped much further westward today than what models had
predicted, and that llvl moisture pool is whats helping to fuel
strong to severe storms near the KS border. Temps as of 2 PM have
warmed into the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for
the plains.

Tonight...Upper low trough digs south into the Intermountain West
and increases southwest flow aloft across the region. These stronger
winds will lower at times through the night, helping to keep the
lower atmos mixed and a bit more mild. Across the plains, isolated
convection currently happening is expected to push clear of the
state by 6 or maybe 7 PM. However, llvl moisture from convective
outflow will likely seep back in overnight, with models indicating
40-50F dewpoints reaching as far back as the I-25 Corridor. Look for
overnight low temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys,
and around 50F for the plains.

Tomorrow...Upper trough deepens even more and slides into western MT
and WY, increasing SW flow even moreso across the Four Corners
region. This strong warming and drying flow will produce critical
fire weather conditions for portions of the forecast area during the
afternoon. Fortunately, much of the fuels in the area have been
deemed non-critical, save for the lower elevations of the Sangres,
the Wets and the Wet Mt Valley. Therefore, the watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for that area. As for convective
chances, llvl moisture pooling across the plains and decent shear
would normally mean an active day, but all models are indicating a
decent cap in place that should inhibit convection for much of the
area. The exception will be the mts and Palmer Divide, where terrain
will aid in getting some isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms going by the afternoon. Plan on another very warm day
even as mid and high level cloud cover will be on the increase from
the west. Temps will climb into the 70s for the high valleys, and
upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Monday Night: Monday night will bring relatively quiet weather to
south central and southeastern Colorado. A shortwave embedded within
a broader trough will eject across the area. The uptick in forcing
with this feature will help to blossom isolated to scattered showers
across the mountains throughout the overnight hours, particularly
across the central mountains, where forcing will be strongest. As
for the rest of the region, dry conditions are anticipated. With
that said, a dryline will be sitting across the eastern plains
throughout the evening hours. The kinematic environment will be
highly supportive of organized thunderstorms, however, a strong and
strengthening cap is anticipated to hinder any convective
development. Confidence on any thunderstorm development is very low
(<19%), but if, and that`s a big if, any thunderstorms can blossom
along this dryline and become mature, significant severe weather
would be likely. As the aforementioned shortwave continues to push
to northeast overnight, dry air will prevail and shove this dryline
eastward, and any precipitation concerns will then remain along the
mountains. As for temperatures, a mild night is expected for the
region. Downsloping westerly winds will help to keep much of south
central and southeastern Colorado mild and relatively warm for the
overnight hours.

Tuesday - Saturday: For much of the long term period, some
active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern
Colorado. Broad troughing/southwesterly flow with embedded
shortwaves will be in place over the region, and ensemble model
guidance are in decent agreement about this pattern evolution.
While this pattern will bring at least modest upticks in
forcing, especially when the shortwaves influence the region,
the strongest forcing will remain to the north and northwest of
the area. With that all said though, given at least some forcing
in place, isolated to scattered showers are anticipated, though
mostly along the mountains where any forcing will be greatest.
Elsewhere across the region, drier conditions are expected given
the strongest forcing remaining to the north. Along with that
though, given the drier conditions, and increasing winds with
this pattern, critical fire weather conditions will be a concern
throughout the week, particularly across the San Luis Valley
and the eastern plains. Looking at temperatures, a warm stretch
of days is anticipated. Much of the area will warm to and
slightly above seasonal values for late May.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly
for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. Winds will be synoptically
influenced by an approaching system, which will cause winds to
become rather gusty out of the SW tomorrow at all terminals,
with gusts as high as 35kts at KALS, 32kts at KCOS and 30kts at
KPUB. There will be FROPA at KCOS around 04Z and KPUB around
05Z, but may come a little sooner depending on acceleration of
the front. This will cause winds to shift to a NNW-NNE`ly
direction at both terminals.
-Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...STEWARD